Classification of the main types of business risks. Risks to consider in a business plan

During their entrepreneurial activities, entrepreneurs often face various types of risks, which ultimately greatly affect the success of the enterprise. All types of risks are closely related, and today we will take a closer look at what small business risks are, what they depend on and what they affect.

Definition and classification of risks

Risk is the possibility of critical situation for a business or other activity. They are basically classified according to the following important indicators:

• formation time;
• the main factors of occurrence;
• form of accounting;
• the form of consequences;
• sphere of occurrence.

Formation time

By the time of occurrence, risks are divided into permanent and temporary. Permanent - manifests itself throughout the entire period of operation and is directly related to the influence of permanent factors. Temporary - appears at certain stages of the production process.

Origin factors

Risk factors are divided into several types:

1. Political are the possible losses associated with the change political system in the country or with the actions of the authorities. This may include blocking the borders of the state, a ban on the transportation of goods, and so on.
2. Social associated with a social (public) crisis.
3. Commercial- the risk of financial losses that may arise in any economic activity. This may include the financial and production risks of the enterprise, which will be discussed below.
4. Ecological- implies the possible liability of a legal entity for damage to nature and environment or people's health.
5. Professional- associated with the unprofessionalism of employees or persons who have any relation to the enterprise.

Form or nature of accounting

Types of risks classified by the nature of accounting:

• external (permanent)- not dependent on the activities of the enterprise. Occurs during the change of stages of the economic cycle, in the course of changes against the background of a change in state financial market and in other situations that the enterprise cannot influence;
• internal (non-permanent)- directly related to the activities of the organization. The main factors that may be associated with internal risk are low-skilled employees, unproductive structure of funds and assets, underestimation of partners and other causes that lead to adverse consequences, but which can be eliminated by risk management.

Currently shelf companies are extremely in demand on the market, but their selection and purchase should be approached with extreme caution. There is a risk that the acquisition of an LLC will result in a loss Money. To avoid undesirable consequences, it is necessary to know what dangers may lie in wait on the way of buying a ready-made company.

A legal entity is registered for a specific person (founder) or organization. After entering information into the Unified State Register of Legal Entities, the company acquires a head - CEO or the president. If you buy a ready-made LLC, the new head is indicated in the documents.

Re-registration

Often, after the conclusion of the contract of sale, it is not possible to re-register the company for another person. As a rule, such situations arise if the current manager is unavailable. In such circumstances, you will not be able to conduct a full-fledged activity. Unscrupulous former owners begin to conclude transactions, arrange loans and take on any obligations on behalf of the LLC.

Until the completion of the re-registration procedure, the former director can transfer the company's money, block accounts, etc. This risk is one of the most common. It is not easy to verify such information - it is required to send a request on behalf of the director, who at the time of the acquisition of the LLC is not the buyer. To avoid difficult situations, you need to make sure that the manager is available in advance. It is also important, when receiving documents, to pay attention to the date of extract from the Unified State Register of Legal Entities.

Debt

Another possible risk is the company's debts. During its activity entity can make many transactions that do not always bring profit. There are several categories of debts:

• before government bodies (to clarify the information, it is necessary to order certificates of no debt);
• before credit institutions (you need to request a certificate of open accounts, then for each of them - a certificate from the bank about the absence of debt. If the loan was issued without opening a current account, you will be able to find out about this only after re-registration);
• to customers and suppliers (it is necessary to check the company's contracts for the last 3 years, as well as signed acts and invoices. Documents should be verified with payment on the current account).

If the company is connected to the Client-Bank system, it is necessary to change the password for security reasons. DONATIV also recommends checking the history of online transactions.

Legal subtleties

By following a few principles, you can minimize the risks when making a deal. When searching the best option business should pay attention to the following points:

• verify the legality of the registration of the enterprise,
• learn about the activities of the company,
• clarify the reasons for the sale,
• receive information about the penalties and measures that have been taken to eliminate the situations that have arisen.

You may have a well-designed project, but the presence of various kinds of risks may overestimate the cost of an investor's participation in the project, or lead to a refusal to invest.

A systematic analysis of risks and the formulation of measures to prevent them should give the investor confidence in the reliability of the business, including in experienced management that anticipates dangers and is able to minimize them.

It is advisable to single out the risk assessment in a separate section, although it is possible to evaluate each type of risk in the sections devoted to the analysis and justification of each aspect of the project implementation.

Management of risks is the process of developing and implementing solutions that minimize wide range the impact of random or deliberate events that ultimately cause significant material damage to the firm.

The study of project risks allows you to partially avoid uncertainty and set some scenarios (readiness for different options events) development.

During life cycle project must be constantly reassessed. risks.

How to manage risks?

The entire risk management process consists of the following five steps:

1). Identification possible risks;

2). Risk Analysis in accordance with the degree of probability of occurrence and the magnitude of the consequences (filling out the risk map);

3). Development of response and proactive measures risks (filling in the risk response and prevention matrix);

4). Control the process of implementing measures to influence possible risks in the company's activities.

Visually, the risk management process can be represented as Scheme No. 1.

Scheme No. 1. Risk management process.

Risk Management Principles

When managing risks, it is important to observe several principles:

1. Economic feasibility risk management. Responding to some risks is more expensive than accepting their consequences.

2. Systematic management risks. When dealing with risks, it is necessary to take into account all possible risks in their diversity. If you take into account some risks, while others do not, such work is meaningless and useless.

3. Manageability of accepted risks. If you accept any risks, you should be able to influence them. If you cannot influence the consequences of risks, you must do everything so that they do not occur.

4. Sufficiency of reliable information. When making decisions, you must have all the necessary reliable information.

5. Correspondence anti-risk measures corporate culture and organization strategies. Planned response and risk prevention activities must be consistent with the company's organizational culture and higher order goals, otherwise they will not be implemented.

Figure #1. Risk management rules.

Management of risks has various Aspects, including:

· Financial aspect business risks: threat to income, ownership structure and capital. In other words, a threat to the sustainability of well-being.

· Legal aspect- guilt, uniformity, precedents, compatibility, jurisdiction, presumptions, procedurality, coercion, contractuality, arbitration - all this must be determined by the framework of laws. Unfortunately, in modern Russia this part of the laws either does not always correspond to the new market realities, or is absent altogether.

· Statistical aspect- databases are required to create risk management programs. In Western business infrastructure, these statistics have been collected for centuries. In Russia, it either does not exist, or it is fragmentary, or is still classified, or falsified, or not systematized, or is hidden under the guise of a trade secret. The situation is somewhat facilitated by the fact that a significant part of the world's risk and incident statistics is applicable to Russian circumstances.

· Industry aspect risk management lies in the fact that each sector of the economy and privacy has, in addition to general economic, its own specific risks that require special industry knowledge. In this regard, risk management requires the involvement of industry engineers.

· Organizational aspect is that risk management is a collective matter. It requires from the manager knowledge that goes beyond just economics, mathematics, jurisprudence and industry. Knowledge of people is required: their psychology, the laws of their individual, group and mass behavior.

What are the risks?

The analysis of possible risks in the company's activities is the very first and most important stage of the risk management process.

The composition of the analyzed risks should not be selective, but complete - for all facets of the project - technical, organizational, marketing and financial.

· the risk associated with the instability of economic legislation and the current economic situation, investment conditions and the use of profits;

· external economic risk (the possibility of introducing restrictions on trade and supplies, closing borders, etc.);

· the uncertainty of the political situation, the risk of adverse socio-political changes in the country or region;

Incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the dynamics of technical and economic indicators, parameters of new equipment and technology;

fluctuations in market conditions, prices, exchange rates and so on.;

Uncertainty of natural and climatic conditions, the possibility of natural disasters;

production and technological risk (accidents and equipment failures, manufacturing defects, etc.);

Uncertainty of the goals, interests and behavior of the participants;

Incomplete or inaccurate financial information and business reputation participating enterprises (possibility of non-payments, bankruptcies, breaches of contractual obligations).

The following types of risks are assessed in the "PROJECT EXPERT" software package:

the reality of the idea;

Availability of necessary specialists;

the quality of management;

financing;

· safety;

environmental friendliness;

interaction with local authorities and the population;

· sensitivity to the legislation;

readiness of the environment;

adaptability to the environment.

The above are just examples of risk events, you determine the final list of risks for your project yourself.

Identification of possible sources of risks (or risk-forming factors - ROF) in the company's activities can also be carried out on the basis of the application special methods study of internal and external environment, such as:

· methods of SWOT, PEST-analysis (see section "Market Analysis");

· methods for compiling checklists of sources of risk or risk factors;

risk assessment by independent experts;

Self-assessment of risks by the project team using brainstorming or other methods group work;

TO risk source checklists are structured lists of potential risk sources based on historical information about past incidents. An illustrative example is the "core" of the "Risk Universe" model developed and offered to client companies by Ernst & Young (see Figure 1).

Drawing No. 2

The "core" of the risk classification and analysis model Risk-Universe

When using this model, you need to determine the risks of each type (state, culture, assets, production, etc.), their number may not correspond to the figure - more or less than three.

Risk assessment by independent experts consists in interviewing and/or questioning experienced entrepreneurs or risk management specialists who act as experts and are not subjects of risk management in the company under study.

you also can identify potential risks using various group work methods such as brainstorming.

Risk analysis.

The task of risk analysis is to determine the probability of occurrence and possible damage from the occurrence of a risk event. Such grade determines the degree of importance risk, i.e. allows you to identify priority risks for you, the likelihood of which must be minimized.

In Table 1 you can find an example of determining the probability of occurrence of risks.

Table number 1. Estimation of probability of occurrence of risks.

After you have determined the probability of the occurrence of risks, you need to understand what consequences will occur in the event of the occurrence of a particular risk event. You can do this using the following table.

Table 2. Definition of the consequences of risks.

The results of the risk assessment can be presented in the form of a risk map, on which the expected risk events are plotted with their inherent probability and the amount of possible damage. The map can be used to judge the degree of concentration of risk. The higher the concentration of risk, the more difficult the control action.

Figure #3. Risk map.

Risk map

In the course of their activities, entrepreneurs are faced with a combination of different types of risk, which differ in place and time of occurrence, a combination of external and internal factors affecting their level and, therefore, in the way they are analyzed and described.

As a rule, everything types of risks interrelated and affect the activities of the entrepreneur. At the same time, a change in one type of risk can cause a change in most of the others.

Risk classification means the systematization of a set of risks based on some signs and criteria that allow combining risk subsets into more general concepts.

The most important elements underlying the risk classification are:

• time of occurrence;
• main factors of occurrence;
• nature of accounting;
• the nature of the consequences;
• sphere of origin and others.

By the time of occurrence, risks are divided into retrospective, current and prospective risks. Analysis of retrospective risks, their nature and methods of reduction makes it possible to more accurately predict current and future risks.

According to the factors of occurrence, risks are divided into:

• Political risks- these are risks caused by a change in the political situation that affects entrepreneurial activity (closure of borders, a ban on the export of goods, military operations in the country, etc.).
• Economic (commercial) risks- these are risks caused by adverse changes in the economy of the enterprise or in the economy of the country. The most common type of economic risk, in which private risks are concentrated, are changes in market conditions, unbalanced liquidity (inability to fulfill payment obligations in a timely manner), changes in the level of management, etc.

According to the nature of accounting, risks are divided into:

• External risks include risks that are not directly related to the activities of the enterprise or its contact audience ( social groups, legal and (or) individuals who show potential and (or) real interest in the activities of a particular enterprise). The level of external risks is affected by a large number of factors - political, economic, demographic, social, geographical, etc.
• Internal risks include risks caused by the activities of the enterprise itself and its contact audience. Their level is affected by the business activity of the company's management, the choice of the optimal marketing strategy, policy and tactics, and other factors: production potential, technical equipment, level of specialization, level of labor productivity, safety precautions.

According to the nature of the consequences, the risks are divided into:

• Pure risks(sometimes they are also called simple or static) are characterized by the fact that they almost always carry losses for entrepreneurial activity. Reasons for pure risks can be natural disasters, wars, accidents, criminal acts, incapacity of the organization, etc.
• Speculative risks(sometimes they are also called dynamic or commercial) are characterized by the fact that they can carry both losses and additional profit for the entrepreneur in relation to the expected result. Reasons for speculative risks may be changes in market conditions, changes in exchange rates, changes in tax legislation etc.

Risk classification in terms of the sphere of origin, which is based on the spheres of activity, is the largest group. In accordance with the areas of entrepreneurial activity, they usually distinguish: production, commercial, financial and insurance risk.

Production risk associated with the failure of the enterprise to fulfill its plans and obligations for the production of products, goods, services, other types of production activities as a result of the adverse effects of the external environment, as well as inadequate use of new equipment and technologies, fixed and working capital, raw materials, working hours. Among the most important reasons for the emergence of production risk, one can note: a decrease in expected production volumes, an increase in material and / or other costs, the payment of increased deductions and taxes, poor delivery discipline, destruction or damage to equipment, etc.

Commercial risk is the risk arising in the process of selling goods and services produced or purchased by the entrepreneur. The reasons for commercial risk are: a decrease in the volume of sales due to changes in market conditions or other circumstances, an increase in the purchase price of goods, loss of goods in the circulation process, an increase in distribution costs, etc.

financial risk associated with the possibility of a firm failing to meet its financial obligations. The main causes of financial risk are: depreciation of the investment and financial portfolio due to changes in exchange rates, failure to make payments.

insurance risk- this is the risk of the occurrence of an insured event stipulated by the terms and conditions, as a result of which the insurer is obliged to pay insurance compensation (sum insured). The risk results in losses caused by inefficient insurance activities both at the stage preceding the conclusion of the insurance contract and at subsequent stages - reinsurance, the formation of insurance reserves, etc. The main causes of insurance risk are: incorrectly determined insurance rates, gambling methodology of the insured.

Forming the classification associated with production activities, the following risks can be distinguished:

• Organizational risks- these are the risks associated with the mistakes of the company's management, its employees; problems of the internal control system, poorly developed rules of work, i.e. risks associated with internal organization company work.
• Market risks- these are the risks associated with the instability of the economic situation: the risk of financial losses due to changes in the price of goods, the risk of a decrease in demand for products, translational currency risk, the risk of loss of liquidity, etc.
• Credit risks- the risk that the counterparty will not fulfill its obligations in full on time. These risks exist both for banks (the risk of non-repayment of the loan), and for enterprises with receivables, and for organizations operating in the securities market
• Legal risks- these are the risks of losses associated with the fact that the legislation was either not taken into account at all, or changed during the period of the transaction; risk of non-compliance with legislation different countries; the risk of incorrectly drawn up documentation, as a result of which the counterparty is not able to fulfill the terms of the contract, etc.
• Technical and production risks- risk of damage to the environment (environmental risk); the risk of accidents, fires, breakdowns; the risk of disruption in the functioning of the facility due to design and installation errors, a number of construction risks, etc.

In addition to the above classifications, risks can be classified according to the consequences:

• Tolerable Risk is the risk of a decision, as a result of which, if not implemented, the company is threatened with loss of profit. Within this zone entrepreneurial activity retains its economic feasibility, i.e. there are losses, but they do not exceed the expected profit.
• Critical Risk- is the risk at which the company is threatened with loss of revenue; those. the critical risk zone is characterized by the danger of losses that obviously exceed the expected profit and, in extreme cases, can lead to the loss of all funds invested by the enterprise in the project.
• catastrophic risk- the risk at which there is an insolvency of the enterprise. Losses can reach a value equal to the property status of the enterprise. This group also includes any risk associated with a direct danger to human life or the occurrence of environmental disasters.

There are a large number of types and classifications of risks, depending on the specifics of the company's activities. Investment risks, risks in the real estate market, risks in the securities market, etc. are classified separately.

Olga Senova, economics consultant at Alt-Invest LLC. Magazine« CFO» No. 3, 2012. Prepress version of the article.

Investment risk is the measurable probability of incurring losses or missing out on the benefits of an investment. Risks can be divided into systematic and non-systematic.

Systematic risks– risks that cannot be influenced by the impact of the facility management. Always present. These include:

• Political risks (political instability, socio-economic changes)
• Natural and environmental risks (natural disasters);
• Legal risks (instability and imperfection of legislation);
• Economic risks (sharp fluctuations in exchange rates, government measures in the field of taxation, restrictions or expansion of exports and imports, currency legislation, etc.).

The value of systematic (market) risk is determined not by the specifics of an individual project, but general situation On the market. In countries with a developed stock market, to determine the degree of influence of these risks on a project, the coefficient? is most often used, which is determined on the basis of stock market statistics for a particular industry or company. In Russia, such statistics are very limited, so, as a rule, only expert opinions. If there is a high probability of the realization of a particular risk, if possible, additional measures for leveling negative consequences in relation to the project. It is also possible to develop scenarios for the implementation of the project under various developments of external conditions.

Unsystematic risks- risks that can be eliminated partially or completely as a result of the impact of the facility management:

• Production risks (risk of non-fulfillment of planned work, failure to achieve planned production volumes, etc.);
• Financial risks (risk of not receiving the expected income from project implementation, risk of insufficient liquidity);
• Market risks (changes in market conditions, loss of market positions, price changes).

Unsystematic risks

They are more manageable. According to the impact on the project, they can be divided into several groups:

The risk of not receiving the expected income from project implementation

Manifestation: negative meaning NPV (the project is not effective) or an excessive increase in the payback period of the project.

This group of risks includes everything related to the forecast of cash flows in the operational phase. This:

Marketing risk - the risk of shortfall in revenue as a result of failure to achieve the planned sales volume or a decrease in the sales price relative to the planned one. Since the profit of the project (and profit is determined to the greatest extent by revenue) determines its effectiveness, marketing risks are key project risks. To reduce this risk, it is necessary to carefully study the market, identify key factors that can affect the project, predict their occurrence or increase, and ways to neutralize negative impact these factors. Possible factors: changing market conditions, increased competition, loss of market positions, reduced or no demand for project products, reduced market capacity, lower product prices, etc. Marketing risk assessment is especially relevant for projects to create new production or expand existing production. For cost reduction projects in existing production, these risks are usually studied to a lesser extent.

Example: When building a hotel, marketing risks relate to two characteristics: price per room and occupancy. Suppose an investor has set a price for a hotel based on its location and class. Then the main factor of uncertainty will be occupancy. The risk analysis of such a project should be based on the study of its ability to "survive" at different occupancy values. And the scatter of possible values ​​should be taken from the market statistics for other similar objects (or, if the statistics could not be collected, the occupancy scatter boundaries will have to be established analytically).

• The risk of exceeding the production cost of products - production costs exceed those planned, thereby reducing the profit of the project. It is necessary to analyze costs based on comparison with the costs of similar enterprises, analysis of selected suppliers of raw materials (reliability, availability, possibility of alternatives), forecasting the cost of raw materials.

Example: If among the raw materials consumed by the project there are agricultural products or, for example, a significant share of the cost is occupied by petroleum products, then it will be necessary to take into account that the prices for these raw materials depend not only on inflation, but also on specific factors (harvest, conjuncture in the energy market and etc.). Often, fluctuations in the cost of raw materials cannot be fully transferred to the price of products (for example, the production of confectionery or the operation of a boiler room). In this case, it is especially important to study the dependence of project results on cost fluctuations.

• Technological risks – risks of shortfall in profit as a result of failure to achieve the planned volume of production or an increase in the cost of production due to the chosen production technology.
  Risk factors:
  Features of the applied technology - maturity of technology, features associated with technological process and its applicability in given conditions, compliance of raw materials with the selected equipment, etc.
  Equipment supplier dishonesty– failures in the delivery of equipment, delivery of low-quality equipment, etc.
  Lack of available service for maintenance of purchased equipment– the remoteness of service departments can lead to significant downtime of the production process.

Example: Technological risks of building a brick factory in an environment where there is already a building to house the equipment, the sources of raw materials have been studied, and the equipment is supplied as a single turnkey production line well-known manufacturer, will be minimal. On the other hand, the construction project of the plant in conditions when the place for quarrying, where raw materials will be extracted, it is required to build a plant building, and the equipment will be purchased and installed on its own from different suppliers, is huge. In the latter case, an external investor will most likely require additional guarantees or removal of risk factors (studying the situation with raw materials, attracting a general contractor, etc.).

• Administrative risks – risks of shortfall in profit as a result of the influence of the administrative factor. Interest in the project of administrative power, its support by it significantly reduces these risks.

Example: The most typical administrative risk is associated with obtaining a building permit. Usually, banks do not finance commercial real estate projects before obtaining permission, the risks are too high.

Risk of insufficient liquidity

Manifestation: negative cash balances at the end of the period in the forecast budget.

This type of risk can arise both in the investment and in the operational phase:

• Project budget overrun risk . Reason: More investments were needed than planned. The level of risk can be significantly reduced by careful investment analysis during the project planning stage. (Comparison with similar projects or productions, analysis of the technological chain, analysis of the complete scheme for the implementation of the project, planning the size working capital). It is desirable to provide funding for contingencies. Even with the most careful investment planning, 10% over budget is considered the norm. Therefore, in particular, when attracting a loan, it is envisaged to increase the limit of funds available to the borrower, selected if necessary.
• Risk of discrepancy between the investment schedule and the financing schedule . Funding is delayed or insufficient, or there is a strict lending schedule that does not allow deviation in any direction. In this case, it is necessary to own funds- advance reservation of money; for a credit line – to provide in the agreement for the possibility of fluctuations in the timing of the withdrawal of funds under the credit line.
• Risk of shortage of funds at the stage of reaching the design capacity . It leads to a delay in the operational phase, a slowdown in the rate of reaching the planned capacity. Reason: Working capital financing was not considered at the planning stage.
• Risk of shortage of funds in the operational phase . The influence of internal and external factors leads to a decrease in profits and a lack of funds to pay off obligations to creditors or suppliers. When attracting credit funds for project implementation, one of the main ways to reduce this risk is to use the debt coverage ratio when building a loan repayment schedule. The essence of the method: the possible fluctuation of the money earned by the company in the period is set in accordance with the expectations of the market and economic situation. For example, with a coverage ratio of 1.3, a company's profit may decrease by 30% while maintaining its ability to repay obligations under a loan agreement.

Example: Building a business center may not seem like a very risky project if you only look at price fluctuations. On average, over the period of its existence, price fluctuations will not be so great. However, a very different picture emerges when you consider the rate of rental and the combination of income with payments. A business center built using credit funds can easily go bankrupt due to a relatively short-term (compared to its lifetime) crisis. This is exactly what happened to many facilities that started operating at the end of 2008 and 2009.

Risk of non-fulfillment of planned work during the investment phase for organizational or other reasons

Manifestation: delay or incomplete start of the operational phase.

The more complex the project under consideration, the more requirements are placed on the quality of project management - on the experience and specialization of the team implementing this project.

Ways to reduce of this type risk: selection of a qualified project management team, selection of equipment suppliers, selection of contractors, ordering a turnkey project, etc.

We have considered the main types of risks present in investment projects. It should be noted that there are many classifications of risk. The use of a specific classification in a business plan is determined by the specifics of the project. You should not get carried away with a scientific approach and give numerous complex qualifications. It is more expedient to indicate exactly those types of risks that are most significant for this investment project.

For all selected types of risk in the business plan, an assessment of their value for this investment project is given. It is most convenient to give such an assessment not on a risk score scale and through its probabilities, but through the assessment of “high”, “medium” or “low”. This is due to the fact that such a verbal, and not numerical score, is much easier to prove and justify than, for example, the probability of a risk occurring in 0.6 (the question immediately arises why exactly 0.6, and not 0.5 or 0.7).

The main risks described in the investment project

Macroeconomic risks:

• market fluctuations
• changes in currency and tax legislation
• decline in business activity (slowdown in economic growth)
• unpredictable regulatory measures in the areas of legislation
• adverse socio-political changes in the country or region

Risks of the project itself:

• change in demand for products, works, services that are a source of income for the project
• change in pricing conditions; change in the composition and cost of resources, including material and labor
• condition of fixed production assets
• structure and cost of capital financing the project
• mistakes in building logistics
• poor management of the production process; increased activity of competitors
• inadequate system of planning, accounting, control and analysis
• inefficient use of property; dependence on the main supplier of material resources
• staff inefficiency
• lack of personnel motivation system

This list can be continued depending on the specifics of the implementation of a particular investment project.