Syrian cities where there is a war. War in Syria. How does this apply to Ukraine

- an armed conflict between the Syrian troops and paramilitaries loyal to the government of the country on the one hand and the armed rebel groups (mainly consisting of Islamists) on the other.

Source: http://www.peremeny.ru/books/osminog/7564

Causes of the war in Syria

Beginning in 2006, a drought began in Syria, as a result of which vast areas were left without a crop. Nearly a million Syrian citizens have lost their livelihood because of this.

On March 15, 2011, after the demonstration, protests broke out, which very quickly grew into nationwide protests that swept the whole country. The demands of the protesters were: the resignation of President Assad and the government. The demonstration itself was attended by several hundred people who responded to the calls of the group in social network. Most of the rebel fighters are foreign mercenaries. Also, there are many factors that indicate that the Syrian opposition is sponsored by many governments of other countries, as well as terrorist organizations.

The material and technical base of anti-government organizations was supported by: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, the United States and some other states, the Syrian government was supported by Iran, Russia, North Korea and Venezuela.

June 3, 2014 presidential elections, the incumbent president won again. The election results were not recognized by the opposition and also received limited recognition from the international community.

During the civil war in Syria, there was a case of the opposition using chemical weapons.

Terrorist attacks are regularly occurring in Syria, mainly targeting Syrian civilians. The objects of acts are most often places largest concentration people: squares, markets, hospitals, schools, universities. Also, Christian churches, mosques, synagogues suffer from terrorist attacks.

Today, Russia and Iran strongly support the regime of Bashar al-Assad, while Turkey, the US, EU countries, and other Western countries condemn Assad and demand his resignation. Moreover, in parallel with the conflict between the Syrian opposition and Assad in Syria, there is a war against ISIS terrorists, but the parties still cannot agree on a joint fight against the Islamists. At the same time, in September Western countries, including Germany and Britain, have also softened their rhetoric and no longer rule out the possibility of negotiating with Assad.

On September 28, 2015, the US President agreed to negotiate at the level of representatives of the defense departments in order to avoid conflict during possible military operations in Syria. However, the parties did not come to a common denominator regarding further fate Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Russia: war in Syria

The Syrian authorities have repeatedly appealed to Russia with a request for military aid.

At the end of September 2015, Russia officially announced its readiness to participate in the civil war in Syria. The Federation Council gave the president permission to use troops abroad.

Russia said it would only act in full compliance with the rules international law, that is, with the sanction of the Security Council or after the request of the Syrian authorities.

The terms of participation

The President named three main conditions of use Russian army in this war, with the stipulation that we are not going to plunge headlong into a conflict that has deep roots and different reasons:

firstly, the Russian military supports the Syrian army only in its fight against terrorist groups;

Secondly, we are talking only about the use of Russian, and participation in ground operations is excluded;

thirdly, this support will be limited to the duration of the Syrian army's offensive operations.

That is, the Russian combat aviation will help the Syrian army regain control over the country, destroying the armed units and communications of the "caliphate" and those terrorists who are not part of it and do not want to stop fighting against Damascus, and then leave Syria, on the territory of which, naturally, military base our armed forces.

Target

Putin called the destruction of militants and terrorists in the territories they have occupied the main goal - we must act proactively, and not wait for them to come to our house. The President recalled that the “caliphate” had long ago declared Russia its enemy and thousands of people from Russia and post-Soviet countries were fighting in its ranks.

airstrikes

September 30, 2015 Russian bombers attacked ISIS fighters in Syria. Nevertheless, information appeared in the media that the airstrikes were on the civilian population of Syria. Russia denies this information.

Reports that Russian aircraft after aerial reconnaissance and clarification of data received from the headquarters of the Syrian army, they have already made about 20 sorties, as a result of which command posts IS militants' headquarters in the mountains have been completely destroyed. During pinpoint strikes on eight targets in Syria, Russian aircraft hit ammunition depots, weapons and accumulations of military equipment.

1. Introduction

The Syrian conflict, or as some observers say the "Syrian war", appears before us as a complete set of all kinds of conflicts: social, religious, domestic political and foreign policy. The conflict situation is supplemented by the difficult economic situation in the country, the high level of differentiation of the population and, of course, the past experience of the "Arab Spring".

Against a rather dull background, an armed clash is unfolding, as they say, in the best traditions cold war. As before, the Syrian conflict illustrates the geopolitical card being played. On the one hand, Syria is a faithful and probably the only ally in the near future. On the other hand, a dictatorial regime that needs to be immediately overthrown in order to form a "support platform" for future campaigns.

The complexity of the conflict under consideration also lies in the absence of any compromise solution for both sides, which is perhaps the only thing with which all observers analyzing the conflict agree. How legitimate is the intervention of foreign players in the internal political events of the state and how can one evaluate the use of foreign weapons against their own citizens? How to bring the parties to the negotiating table? Authorized representatives of the League of Arab States and the United Nations have not been able to answer these questions.

In this paper, an attempt was made to analyze and present all possible points of view regarding the Syrian conflict, as well as to identify the main trends for understanding its further development.

2. Definition and course of the conflict

The civil war in Syria - massive anti-government unrest and riots in different cities Syria, directed against the country's President Bashar al-Assad, as well as to end the almost fifty-year rule of the Baath Party, which in the fall of 2011 escalated into an open armed confrontation. The so-called Syrian conflict is part of the wider Arab Spring, a wave of social upheaval across the Arab world.

Among the subjects of the conflict are internal political ones: on the one hand, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; Syrian Armed Forces; PASV (Party of the Arab Sociological Revival), on the other hand: the National Council of Syria (Syrian National Council); Free Syrian Army. As well as foreign policy: North Korea, Iran, Russia, Venezuela; on the other hand: USA, UK, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Libya.

Government forces consist of the army and numerous special services, they are also supported by the Hezbollah movement and the so-called. "shabikha" - paramilitary formations of "assistants", formed from semi-criminal elements (shcheglovin new syria). The governing body of the rebels is the Syrian National Council; the largest militant organization fighting against the government is the Free Syrian Army. In addition, there are reports that militants from al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations, as well as foreign mercenaries, are fighting on the side of the rebels.

In January 2011, major unrest took place in many countries of North Africa and the Middle East, as a result of which, in particular, the president of Tunisia and the president of Egypt resigned, and in Libya, the conflict between rebels and forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi led to the military intervention of the UN. In the wake of the events of the Arab Spring in Syria, rallies began demanding the lifting of the state of emergency and political reforms.

Already in March, the unrest escalated into clashes with the police. Bashar al-Assad dismissed the governor of Daraa province. A provision in the Syrian constitution was soon abolished that declared the PASV or Baath party to be “leading and guiding in society and public administration, also the president of the country accepted the resignation of the government of Syria. Later, the state of emergency in Syria, which had been in force in the country since 1962, was lifted. However, despite these concessions by the Syrian leadership, the intensity of events continued to grow, including an increase in the number of victims.

May 2011 as one of the first attempts to resolve the conflict, the US and the EU impose sanctions on Syria (banning the export of weapons, freezing accounts, depriving Syrian government officials of the right to enter). August 2011 marked by internal changes in the political system of Syria - Bashar al-Assad signed a decree on the introduction of a multi-party system.

In September, there was an attempt to resolve the conflict - a draft resolution was submitted to the UN Security Council (USA, UK, France, Portugal). Russia and China vetoed. The reason was the absence in the resolution of a clause excluding an armed invasion of Syria.

In November, it was decided to suspend Syria's membership in the League of Arab States, and economic sanctions were also imposed against the country.

December 2011 - a new attempt to resolve the conflict - Syria agreed to cooperate with the Arab League, which proposed a peace plan (withdrawal of government troops from cities and release of political prisoners). Observers were allowed into the country, but soon, due to the growth of violence, the LAS curtailed the mission of observers.

In February 2012, another attempt was made to resolve the conflict, but Russia and China again vetoed new project UN Security Council resolution on Syria proposed by Morocco. Reason: "one-sided conclusions about the exclusive responsibility of the Syrian government for the escalation of violence in the country."

Bashar al-Assad approved the draft constitution, according to which the country abandoned the previously legally enshrined leading role of the Baath Party. A referendum was held, according to which the document was supported by 89% of voters.

March 2012 - The EU summit recognized the Syrian National Council as the "legitimate representative of the Syrians";

In May, early parliamentary elections were held, in which for the first time several parties took part, as a result of which 73% of the deputy mandates were received by supporters of Bashar al-Assad. The opposition boycotted both the referendum and the parliamentary elections.

On July 16, representatives of the FSA announced that at 20:00 local time a massive offensive would begin against regular troops and armed groups (including Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards) supporting the government. The rebels refer to the Damascus offensive as Operation Damascus Volcano.

The operation led to the assassination of Syrian Defense Minister Daoud Rajih in a suicide attack on a local security office in Damascus. Several other ministers were also injured. Hillary Clinton called global community put pressure on Russia to sign the resolution proposed by the West on Syria. The US Secretary of State believes that Russia should sign a document that provides for tough sanctions against President Bashar al-Assad. Moscow promises to block the project. The Russian draft does not mention sanctions, while Moscow proposes to extend the mandate of the UN observer mission in Syria, which expires on July 20, by three months. China also expressed dissatisfaction with the Clinton project. The tense situation led to the unanimous decision of the UN Security Council to extend the UN observer mission in Syria for 30 days. In the aftermath of military clashes in Damascus, the Arab League (LAS) called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to leave his post "for the sake of saving the country", and the opposition and the Free Syrian Army to start forming a transitional government of national unity.

The next stage of the confrontation can be identified as the battle for Aleppo. The rebels announced the start of a campaign to capture the second largest city in the country, its business center, Aleppo. Armed opposition groups fought with government troops on the outskirts of this city. In the northern direction, they managed to break into the city limits and proceed to storm the local headquarters of the state security agencies. July 24 Official representative Syrian National Council George Sabra said that the opposition is ready to agree to a temporary transfer of power in the country to one of the associates of President Bashar al-Assad. On July 26, the Free Syrian Rebel Army claimed to have seized control of half of the city of Aleppo. On July 28, the Syrian army launched a counteroffensive on Aleppo.

On August 2, Kofi Annan resigned from his post as special envoy of the UN and the League of Arab States (LAS) for Syria due to the ineffectiveness of his proposed peace plan to resolve the Syrian crisis.

In December 2011, a new reason for the clash arises - the militants say that in the near future they will begin the production of chemical weapons - nerve gas.

On January 6, 2013, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad addressed the Syrian people on national television and called for rallying against the militants (oppositionists) funded by the West. He also proposed holding new elections in the country, forming a coalition government based on the results of the vote, declaring a general amnesty, etc.

On January 30, the head of the National Coalition of Opposition and Revolutionary Forces of Syria, Sheikh Ahmed Muaz al-Khatib, expressed his readiness to conduct direct negotiations on the settlement of the armed conflict with representatives of President Bashar al-Assad.

On February 12, the number of victims in the war in Syria (according to the UN) exceeded 70,000 people. On March 25, the UN reduces its presence in Syria for security reasons. On April 8, a group of UN experts investigating the use of chemical weapons was denied the opportunity to work in Syria.

On April 25, US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said that the Syrian authorities had probably used chemical weapons. According to him, American intelligence came to such conclusions.

If we move away from the chronology of the conflict and turn to analytics, we can distinguish three stages of the process, but the expert described these stages only at the end of 2012.

The first stage - early-mid 2011. During this period, foreign "missionaries" were sent to the territory of Syria with considerable financial resources organizing protest demonstrations inciting clashes with police, raids on government agencies and police stations. During the demonstrations, they also staged provocations, the purpose of which was to shed blood - and it was during this period that the number of victims among police officers was several times higher than the number of dead demonstrators and civilians.

The second stage began when the "missionaries" turned into "recruiters", starting recruiting among marginalized groups of the population. It is worth noting that the economic situation in Syria in the period 2008-2010 was extremely difficult - a severe three-year drought led to mass migration from the north of the country, hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees living in Syria and about half a million Sunni refugees from Iraq represented up to still provide extremely fertile ground for this kind of recruitment. The second stage of the conflict led to the fact that the number of people opposing the authorities, ready and capable of destroying the state, robberies, violence, murders, sharply - literally by an order of magnitude - increased within six months.

Finally, the third stage of the process began towards the end of 2011. There was a sharp shift in the situation - the recruited robbers, rapists, criminals began to stray into groups and groups, which immediately began to introduce experienced leaders - both from among foreigners and from among local criminal authorities. There was a structuring of the underground gangs, the supply of weapons and their seizure on the territory of the country began. At the same time, the creation of training camps began in Lebanon and Turkey, in which citizens of Islamic countries recruited to fight against the bloody regime began to arrive.

3. Causes of the Syrian conflict

Having dealt with the course of events, it is necessary to explain the causes of the conflict, as well as to consider the interests and participation in it of both internal and external actors. According to the report of the UN expert, the causes of the Syrian conflict are divided into domestic economic and foreign economic. The expert points to the absence of domestic economic reasons, since “... as of the end of 2010, the main national macroeconomic indicators looked quite good against the background of the world average ... Syria, although it is experiencing serious economic difficulties, nevertheless, is developing at a pace that keeps it from falling into stagnation and being saved from crisis situations of a national scale.

As for the foreign economic ones, they singled out among them: the construction of gas processing plants and a network of oil and gas pipelines connecting Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan. In such ambitious projects, the participation of American and Western European companies was not envisaged. preference was given Russian company. Thus, the role of Iran, Syria, Turkey and Russia increased in this region.

Also, among the reasons, the UN expert highlights religious contradictions: the conflict between Sunnis and Allavis.

However, other researchers of the Syrian problem have a completely different opinion about the causes of the conflict. Basically, attention is drawn to two reasons: socio-economic and religious, and it is in their interweaving that the foundations of the Syrian crisis are laid. The first means a low standard of living and the economic situation in the country, despite the positive indicators of the UN representatives.

As for the religious reason, the situation is much more complicated. The conflict between Alawites and Sunnis, if more broadly - Shiites and Sunnis, or, even more broadly - Christians with Muslims is reduced to nothing.

The confrontation is on a different level. Since the time of French influence and the further socialist course of the country, a part of society has significantly departed from Islam and retains only a formal connection with religion. As a rule, these are representatives of the ruling circles and the middle class, the state apparatus, the intelligentsia, people who have received a European education, communists, atheists, pro-Western liberals, etc. Religious minorities adjoin them - Christians, Druze and Alawites, among whom, for the most part, religion also does not play a global role. The whole set may have different attitudes towards the policy of the Baath party, but it is united in one thing - the secular nature of the Syrian state should in no case be changed. If at the beginning of the Syrian events some of the liberals were in opposition, then in this moment they support the current government, which was served by the events in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, as well as in Syria itself. On hastily the downed oppositional Syrian National Council (SNC), which declares its adherence to the ideas of democracy and liberalism, does not influence the events inside the country and practically does not control the Syrian Free Army (FSA). The SNA itself consists of emigrants and political refugees who have long lost real ties with their homeland and are practically not popular among the Syrians.

As a rule, secular Syrians live mainly in major cities, most of all, which is natural, in Damascus, Aleppo, Latakia, it is here that the standard of living and education is much higher. It is here that the FSA has almost no social base, in contrast to the smaller towns and countryside, where rebellions most often occur. Just on the periphery, dissatisfaction with the economic situation, fueled by religious slogans, is as high as possible. As for the countries Persian Gulf, they only took advantage of this socio-religious differentiation of Syrian society and financed the further radicalization of these sections of the population in order to achieve their own interests. These interests are by no means connected with the restoration of the Islamic Caliphate, but are more prosaic - for example, the establishment of oil and gas supplies to Europe through the territory of Syria.

Another view of the problem belongs to Y. Shcheglovin, who assesses the development of actions in Syria from the point of view of religious confrontation. He notes: “The typical pattern is that usually within the boundaries of one city or locality, the center of resistance is concentrated in the Sunni neighborhoods, while the Alawite or Christian neighborhoods remain calm. In the same Homs, armed resistance is concentrated in eight Sunni quarters, while two Alawites are not actually affected by the war.

He also notices the special position of the Alawite community, which also begins to oppose the center. Previously loyal to Bashar al-Assad, "Alawite" Latakia also "noted" a number of protests. In particular, Alawite demonstrations of protest against the central authorities were recorded in the suburbs of Latakia Moshkita, Demsarkho, Beskazi. They were not numerous, but what is important - Alawites participated in them. This may indirectly indicate the beginning of stratification within this community. However, the actions of the Alawite community are determined by fears about the prospects for their physical survival in the event of Assad's departure. And here his figure is considered precisely in the context of the guarantor of this security, no matter what personal sympathies or antipathies certain representatives of the Alawite community have for him. According to Shcheglovin, the majority of Christians, Armenians, Circassians and Kurds are loyal to the regime in the same way. In the latter case, there is a clear line of conduct to maintain neutrality, which is also supported by the leadership of the Iraqi Kurds in the person of Masoud Barzani.

4. Interests of other states

Interests outside world in the Syrian conflict are also contradictory. In general, two points of view can be distinguished - the pro-Western liberal-democratic and anti-Western, on the basis of which various forces converge perfectly, from nationalists to communists.

The position of liberal forces on the whole coincides with the position of Western countries and boils down to the fact that the Syrian people, oppressed by a tyrant, are fighting for freedom and democracy with totalitarian regime. This view a priori assumes the condemnation of any actions on the part of the authorities, even those aimed at stabilizing the situation in Syria, and the suppression of armed semi-gangster formations becomes a "fight against one's own people."

Such a point of view can be easily criticized, because the countries of the Middle East are alien to the concept of democracy and any European or Western ideology will collide with the established principles of Sharia. Even if truly democratic elections are held under external pressure, these elections become the last democratic ones, either the Islamists or the military come to power and inevitably establish the same authoritarian system.

The anti-Western stance often turns into a conspiracy theory, according to which the United States seeks to establish control over one more country, in addition to eliminating Iran's only ally in the region before a future war with it. Also, its main goal is to oust Russia from the Middle East. This position can also be challenged, since Syria is not of interest to the United States either from a strategic or economic point of view.

Other representatives of this theory believe that the political and military actions of the opposition in Syria take place primarily on the initiative and with the financial and military support of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while the United States only lobbies them. political interests in the international arena. Undoubtedly this is true, as well as the fact that Russia supports the Syrian government on all the same points in view of its own interests. Turkey, Israel and Iran have their own interests here.

It should be noted that without internal support in Syria itself, any initiative external forces would be doomed to failure. You should not perceive the Syrian opposition as just bandits, just as you should not perceive government troops as peacekeepers.

It is no secret to anyone that the strength of the Syrian opposition lies in various forms of external support. The "revolution" would have been doomed to defeat without a constant influx of foreign aid to the opposition (money, weapons, ammunition) and external interference (a constant influx of "revolutionaries" from abroad - mainly from Arab countries). Of particular importance is the strong political support of the United States, Great Britain, France, the GCC countries, and Turkey. The armed formations of the irreconcilable Syrian opposition are represented by the forces of the "Free Syrian Army" (the FSA has, according to various estimates, from 3 thousand to 100 thousand fighters; it consists mainly of Sunnis who deserted after the outbreak of unrest from the Syrian army; constantly replenished by jihadists from Lebanon , Iraq, Tunisia, which the authorities of these countries have officially recognized more than once), radical Islamists from the Jabhat al-Nusra movement (about 5 thousand trained and well-armed fighters) and detachments of disparate jihadist groups.

A. Fedorchenko is also of the opinion about the religious factor in inciting events in Syria. He divides Islamist movements outside of Syria into three groups: the Muslim Brotherhood, the Salafis and the jihadists. Despite all the ideological and organizational differences, in this case, jihadists should be singled out among them - supporters of violence and opponents of any elements of electoral democracy and pluralism. It is they who form the basis of Jabhat al-Nusra and smaller jihadist groups that oppose the army and security forces of the SAR. The growing jihadist groups, made up of militants arriving in Syria from other Arab countries, Turkey and even Europe, are increasingly acting as a separate, uncontrollable force.

It should be recognized that, to a certain extent, the Syrian regime itself contributed to the formation of radical Islamist movements in the country - for many years it provided shelter to all kinds of extremist and terrorist organizations. In exchange for shelter, the Islamists did not disturb the local authorities, acting outside of Syria, including against US troops in Iraq and anti-Syrian politicians in Lebanon, and participated in operations against Israel. There is a direct analogy here with the relationship between the United States and radical Islamists, especially since with the beginning of the "Arab revolution" the jihadists turned their weapons against the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

It is noteworthy that the US and NATO are interested in bringing the military activity of the opposition into a controlled channel in the process of achieving a military superiority of the rebels, minimizing the influence of Islamist radicals. Washington fears an Islamist danger if the vertical of power in Syria falls. The Islamist ring can close into a single whole.

The growth of external support for the opposition forces will upset the balance of power in the Syrian conflict and lead to the removal of the current Syrian leadership. There is reason to believe that after the fall of the ruling Syrian regime, the civil war will continue and spread to neighboring Arab countries. Alawites, Shiites, Christians, Kurds may well launch a large-scale guerrilla war, and even more fierce than it was in Iraq.

For the United States, Syria will obviously become a kind of training ground where the Americans will be able to work out their new strategic orientation: to support and promote moderate Islamists who are ready to establish allied relations with this country to power in the Middle East.

The US and EU are currently providing the armed opposition with means of communication, as well as food and medicine, but have no intention of supplying weapons yet. The restraint of Western countries on this issue increased after one of the main Islamist armed groups operating in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, in April 2013 declared an oath of allegiance to the leader of the international terrorist network Al-Qaeda.

And yet, the United States and its allies do not abandon plans to carry out an armed intervention by the forces of the united coalition in order to establish control over the chemical weapons depots of the Syrian army. To coordinate joint actions in this direction, several international meetings have already taken place - with the participation of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, France, Jordan, the Czech Republic, Qatar and Israel.

Washington stepped up its activities to strengthen the international blockade of Syria. Jordan has effectively moved away from its previously fragile position of neutrality with regard to the Syrian crisis; under American pressure, Algeria is moving away from unconditional support for Damascus. Economic sanctions against Syria are getting tougher. On April 19, the EU imposed an embargo on the supply of oil products from Syria, and US sanctions against Syrian officials extended to large businessmen from this country or those of Syrian origin.

Ankara's position on the Syrian problem is rather contradictory. On the one hand, the Turkish leadership sees the fragmentation of the Syrian opposition. Even in the event of the forcible capture by Turkish troops of some part of the Syrian territory, the opposition is not able to create a powerful springboard there for moving to Damascus.

On the other hand, the Turkish society, which is now split into "Kemalists" and Islamists, in its overwhelming majority favors strengthening relations with the Russian Federation, which, due to disagreements on the Syrian issue, are experiencing a period of cooling. That is why the position of the Russian Federation serves as the strongest deterrent for Turkey to implement a military scenario in the SAR, following the example of Iraq or Libya.

In addition, Ankara takes into account the importance of developing trade and economic cooperation with Iran. In particular, the Turks receive significant financial resources from banking operations in the interests of Iran, the transit of Turkmen natural gas coming through Iranian territory, and in the future - the transit of hydrocarbon raw materials. Ankara and Tehran are seriously bringing together Kurdish problem, unwillingness to let external players into the region and anti-Israeli rhetoric. Both states are actively involved in Syrian affairs and are trying to avoid a direct clash of national interests here.

Given the above, Ankara is interested in Tehran's limited involvement in resolving the Syrian crisis through the creation of a special tripartite commission consisting of Iran, Turkey and Russia or Iran, Turkey and Egypt (there is another format consisting of Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia).

Russian researcher V. Evseev notes that there are currently no countries within NATO that would consider it necessary to start military operation against SAR. Even France does not yet see the need for this. But this does not exclude its implementation by a group of NATO member states or the provision of support, primarily informational, to Turkey's actions if it launches a military operation on its own.

It is quite possible that the negative example of Libya has become a serious lesson for the United States. And, despite the involvement in Syrian affairs, Washington is aware of its own unpreparedness for armed intervention.

Newly elected President Barack Obama is opposed to such a military operation. As a result, the US administration will refrain from direct involvement in the Syrian conflict.

The US still maintains troops in Iraq and is preparing for a significant reduction in Afghanistan. These troops could be used in Syria, but such a need would be extremely difficult to justify to the Americans, especially in the context of the ongoing economic depression.

Syria is not the main foreign policy adversary of the United States. China acts in this capacity at the global level, and Iran - at the regional level. It is against them that the main military resources are concentrated. Their diversion, for example, to a protracted war with Syria (most likely, it will follow the Iraqi scenario) will not be supported by the Arabian monarchies. On the other hand, there is a “red line” for the United States regarding Syria, due to the safety of the chemical weapons stockpiles there. In the event of the theft of his samples or the seizure of the corresponding arsenal by the radical opposition, the Americans will be forced to intervene immediately.

5. Conclusion

Despite attempts to identify the various sides of the Syrian conflict, the situation in Syria remains unclear. Most likely, in the next six months, President Bashar al-Assad will retain power, but will not be able to control the territory of the entire country. The armed opposition will continue to try to unite and establish control over one of the major Syrian cities (Aleppo claims this role first of all). If this succeeds, then the opposition will form its own executive bodies, which will hasten to recognize "external sponsors".

The outlook for the second half of 2013 is more complex. Apparently, this period will be decisive for President Bashar al-Assad, and time may already begin to work for the current government. Almost half of the country's population, including numerous national and religious minorities, do not see any other alternative to the current government and are afraid of the "Muslim Brotherhood" and Islamic extremists. All this, given the support from Russia and Iran, gives President Bashar al-Assad a chance that he will definitely take advantage of.

While it is difficult to say exactly how the war in Syria will end - there are signs of a gradual improvement in the situation - the army continues to successfully stop militant groups, has gained very serious modern experience in conducting the most difficult military operations. However, there are signs of a further deterioration of the situation - both in terms of the conduct of hostilities, but most importantly - a sharp complication of the living conditions and activities of the Syrians. One way or another, but Syria, with any outcome of this war, is thrown back in its development for decades. Changes in the organizational structure of the Syrian security forces are too microscopic to somehow significantly improve the situation. The transfer of the war into the area of ​​confessional confrontation is, perhaps, the most main danger future stages of this war. Then Syria has practically no chance of maintaining its statehood and integrity. Only one thing can be said for sure - the conflict will be protracted, and its development will be fundamentally different from the Libyan or Iraqi scenario.

The civil war in Syria has been going on for more than four years, during this time the number of participants in the conflict has changed and now everything is much more complicated than just a confrontation between the government and the opposition.

The site has figured out the Syrian conflict, which is still far from over, but its consequences are already extremely sad.

Where did the conflict start?

From the protests. In 2011, after conditionally successful coups took place in Tunisia and Egypt, Syrians staged mass protests aimed at the resignation of President Bashar al-Assad and the overthrow of the Ba'ath Party, which has ruled for several decades. The protests dragged on, government forces began to use tanks and snipers against the protesters. Gradually, the opposition military and defectors formed fighting units called the Free Syrian Army and launched an insurgent campaign against the Syrian regular army. As a result, armed clashes spread throughout the country.

Where is the religion?

B Ashar al-Assad belongs to the Alawites - one of the religious offshoots of Shiite Islam. Alawites have long been a poor caste, which was actively infringed upon. Having received the protection of the French administration, Alawite boys tried to get out of poverty by choosing a military career. So over time, they formed the backbone of the officer corps, which brought the Assad family to power, which established tight control over the law enforcement agencies in the country. This has sparked outrage among some Sunni Muslims, who are the vast majority in the country. The Kurdish minority was also dissatisfied with the current government, several times the raising of the Kurdish flag caused serious unrest. Religious clashes were one of the causes of mass uprisings in 2011. Subsequently, religious differences between Sunnis and Shiites were used by the authorities to suppress the rebels.

Who is fighting in Syria?

If you do not go into details - everything is with everyone. If you go into it, you can identify five main participants in the conflict. In addition to government troops and the opposition, the Kurds also joined the confrontation, who initially did not support either side, but stood up to defend their own territories. In early 2012, the Al Nusra Front was created, which was once the local branch of the international Islamist terrorist organization Al-Qaeda, but this year disowned its "roots" and declared its independence. The last key party to the conflict is ISIS. This association of Islamists led by the organization "Al-Qaeda" after intervention in Syrian war became the most powerful terrorist organization in the world.

What does not suit Assad?

The prospect of retirement. In fact, Assad's troops now control less than half of the country's territory. He did everything possible to suppress the uprising at the very beginning, throwing an armed army against the protesters. So the protests turned into a civil war.

Where does the opposition get weapons from?

From various sources. The first countries that supported the opposition in Syria with weapons were Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Starting from July 2013, the United States of America promises to intervene militarily in the conflict. European Union, Switzerland and the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf support the rebels, but do not supply them with weapons. Now the opposition groups have a wide range weapons - from modern anti-tank guided missiles "Kornet" and "Metis" to samples of weapons from the Second World War.

What do the Kurds want?

Confessions. The northern regions of Syria are predominantly inhabited by Kurds. After the uprisings turned into a war, self-defense units were created in the Kurdish lands, which took part in battles with government forces. By the summer of 2012, the Kurdish Supreme Committee was formed and took control of the territory. In January 2014, the independence of the state of Syrian Kurdistan was proclaimed. Now the Kurds are fighting against government forces, and against the opposition, and against ISIS.

Where is ISIS in Syria?

From Iraq. This group declared itself there in 2006, creating the Islamic State of Iraq, led by the al-Qaeda group. Subsequently, several other groups joined ISIS and expanded their influence in the country. In April 2013, Islamists intervened in the Syrian civil war, renaming themselves the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. Subsequently, a conflict arose within the group and the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda - the al-Nusra Front declared its independence and entered the war against ISIS.

What is the US position?

The United States insists that Assad is personally responsible for massive crimes, and therefore, from the American point of view, he should leave his post. The US supports Syria's main opposition alliance and provides limited military assistance to "moderate" rebels.

The United States also became one of the initiators of the creation of an international coalition against ISIS. The association now includes most of the EU member states, NATO and the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf.

Why did Russia intervene in the conflict?

Because Syria is considered the closest partner of the Russian Federation in the Middle East and the Kremlin does not want to lose this piece of its zone of influence. Russia supplies Assad's troops with weapons and helps with their technical support. In September of this year Russian minister Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov said that Russia has never hidden its military-technical cooperation with Syria, and in addition to equipment, Russian military specialists work on the territory of this country.

What kind of airstrikes has everyone been discussing in recent weeks?

On September 30, the Russian Federation Council agreed to the use of the Russian Armed Forces abroad, in particular, in Syria. Officially, this was done in order to carry out targeted air strikes against ISIS. However, strikes were also carried out in areas that were under the control of the Syrian opposition and ISIS was not even close there.

How does this apply to Ukraine?

Directly. Firstly, political scientists argue that Moscow escalated the conflict in Syria in order to divert the attention of the world community from Ukraine and "exchange" its participation in the international anti-terrorist coalition for the lifting of sanctions. She has yet to materialize this plan. Secondly, the decision of the Federation Council on the use of aviation does not have any restrictions on the countries in which this aviation can be used. Considering that the war in Donbass is far from over, this is alarming.

March 15, 2011 against the background of the so-called. "Arab spring" in Syria began mass anti-government protests. Opponents of the current regime in the capital Damascus. Then anti-government demonstrations broke out in the south of the country - in the city of Deraa, located on the border with Jordan.

In April 2011, mass demonstrations demanding fundamental reforms. As a result of clashes with the police, people died.

By the end of 2011, the deepest domestic political crisis had escalated into an internal armed conflict. The Syrian leadership, which was late in implementing political reforms, did not keep up with the progress of the protests. The demands of the Syrian street, fundamentally Sunni, for democratic rights and freedoms, by analogy with other Arab countries, quickly transformed into slogans to overthrow the ruling regime of Bashar al-Assad (he himself is an Alawite; Alawites -).

International Committee Red Cross (ICRC) that regards the conflict in Syria as a civil war.

The growth of the crisis was facilitated by its unprecedented internationalization with the support of the anti-Assad opposition by regional (Turkey, Arabian monarchies) and external (primarily the United States and France) players. The desire of the latter to change the regime in Syria at any cost has led to the militarization of the conflict, pumping the irreconcilable opposition with money and weapons. Demands for the resignation of Bashar al-Assad were combined with forced formation as an alternative to the regime of "umbrella" opposition structures. This process culminated in the creation in November 2012 of the National Coalition of the Syrian Revolutionary Forces and the Opposition.

© AP Photo / Virginie Nguyen Huang, File

© AP Photo / Virginie Nguyen Huang, File

In parallel, the formation of the armed wing of the opposition under the "roof" of the so-called. Free Syrian Army. Subversive and terrorist activity eventually evolved into a large-scale guerrilla war on a wide "theater of combat operations." As a result, large areas of the country on the border with Turkey and Iraq came under the control of the armed opposition, and the "front line" came close to the capital.

Meanwhile, the logic of the development of the conflict has led to the polarization of Syrian society, the bitterness of confrontation, including on an inter-confessional basis. Against this background, the positions of Sunni Islamic radicals (the Al-Qaeda group Dzhebhat al-Nusra *, banned in Russia, etc.) strengthened in the camp of the armed opposition with their calls for jihadization of the insurgent movement. As a result, thousands of "fighters for the faith" from all over the Arab-Muslim world flocked to Syria.

As of the end of 2015, more than a thousand armed anti-government groups, including more than 70 thousand people, were operating in the country. Of these, tens of thousands are foreign mercenaries, and the majority were extremists from more than 80 countries, including Muslim states, the EU, the US, Russia and China (Uyghur Muslims).

External support allowed the terrorist organization "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" * (ISIS), later * (ISIS, Arab. DAISH, banned in Russia) to become more active. In the summer of 2014, the Islamic State organization* .

© AP Photo / Raqqa Media CenterMilitants of the terrorist group "Islamic State" (IS, banned in the Russian Federation) in the city of Raqqa, Syria

© AP Photo / Raqqa Media Center

A new round of conflict arose in August 2013, when a number of media outlets reported on the large-scale use of chemical weapons by Syrian troops in the vicinity of Damascus. More than 600 people became victims of the attack. The coalition of the national opposition in Syria claimed that the number of victims could reach 1.3 thousand people. After the incident, the parties to the conflict repeatedly declared their innocence, blaming opponents for what happened. UN inspectors went to Damascus to. The investigation conducted by the UN mission confirmed the very fact of the chemical attack, but the mission did not determine which side of the conflict.

The possible use of chemical weapons has unleashed a worldwide discussion about the need to launch a military operation in Syria. In turn, Russian President Vladimir Putin put forward an initiative to place the Syrian military chemical potential under international control. On September 28, 2013, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution on Syria in support of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) plan aimed at . At the end of June 2014, the removal of chemical weapons from Syria was completed. In early 2016, the OPCW.

Attacks on IS* positions in Syria are carried out by an international coalition led by the United States, while the coalition is operating.

On September 30, 2015, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad asked Moscow for military assistance. Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a proposal to the Federation Council to adopt a resolution on consent to the use of the contingent of the Russian Armed Forces abroad, the Federation Council unanimously supported the president's appeal. Military target The operation was declared air support for the Syrian government forces in their counteraction to the Islamic State terrorist group. Aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) on the same day began to conduct an air operation of the IS* group in Syria.

As of September 2017, the aerospace forces carried out more than 30,000 sorties, inflicting more than 92,000 airstrikes, and as a result hit more than 96,000 terrorist targets. Among the objects of terrorists destroyed by the Aerospace Forces: command posts (total 8332), strongholds of terrorists (total 17194), concentrations of militants (total 53707), militant training camps (total 970), depots of weapons and ammunition (total 6769), oil fields (212 ) and oil refineries (184), fuel transfer stations and tanker convoys (132) as well.

December 18, 2015 UN Security Council in support of the political transition in Syria. As a basis for the political transition in Syria, the UN Security Council endorsed the Action Group's Geneva Communiqué on Syria of 30 June 2012 and the "Vienna Statements" International Syria Support Group, November 14, 2015). Negotiations between the Syrian government and representatives of the Syrian opposition under the auspices of the UN.

Eight meetings were held in Geneva, but they did not bring any progress.

The last Geneva consultations ended in mid-December 2017 with mutual accusations of the parties, and it was not possible to start direct negotiations between the delegations. UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura called the eighth round a "golden missed opportunity" and pointed out that both sides created a negative and irresponsible atmosphere in the talks. The main discussions in the talks are around a 12-point non-paper on the future of Syria, proposed by the UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura. In parallel, there are discussions (constitution, elections, governance and terrorism). On January 25-26, 2018, a special meeting on Syria was held at the UN office in Vienna.

In parallel, in Syria in Astana, initiated by Russia, Iran and Turkey. Eight rounds of negotiations took place, the last -. During this time, a memorandum was signed on the creation of de-escalation zones in Syria, a provision was agreed on a joint task force to monitor the cessation of hostilities in Syria, and a number of other agreements were reached, which . During the seventh round of negotiations, it was decided to hold the Congress of National Reconciliation of Syria in Sochi.

*Terrorist and extremist organizations banned in Russia.

The material was prepared on the basis of information from RIA Novosti and open sources

March 15, 2011 against the background of the so-called. "Arab spring" in Syria began mass anti-government protests. Opponents of the current regime in the capital Damascus. Then anti-government demonstrations broke out in the south of the country - in the city of Deraa, located on the border with Jordan.

In April 2011, mass demonstrations demanding fundamental reforms. As a result of clashes with the police, people died.

By the end of 2011, the deepest domestic political crisis had escalated into an internal armed conflict. The Syrian leadership, which was late in implementing political reforms, did not keep up with the progress of the protests. The demands of the Syrian street, fundamentally Sunni, for democratic rights and freedoms, by analogy with other Arab countries, quickly transformed into slogans to overthrow the ruling regime of Bashar al-Assad (he himself is an Alawite; Alawites -).

International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) that regards the conflict in Syria as a civil war.

The growth of the crisis was facilitated by its unprecedented internationalization with the support of the anti-Assad opposition by regional (Turkey, Arabian monarchies) and external (primarily the United States and France) players. The desire of the latter to change the regime in Syria at any cost has led to the militarization of the conflict, pumping the irreconcilable opposition with money and weapons. Demands for the resignation of Bashar al-Assad were combined with forced formation as an alternative to the regime of "umbrella" opposition structures. This process culminated in the creation in November 2012 of the National Coalition of the Syrian Revolutionary Forces and the Opposition.

© AP Photo / Virginie Nguyen Huang, File

© AP Photo / Virginie Nguyen Huang, File

In parallel, the formation of the armed wing of the opposition under the "roof" of the so-called. Free Syrian Army. Subversive and terrorist activity eventually evolved into a large-scale guerrilla war on a wide "theater of combat operations." As a result, large areas of the country on the border with Turkey and Iraq came under the control of the armed opposition, and the "front line" came close to the capital.

Meanwhile, the logic of the development of the conflict has led to the polarization of Syrian society, the bitterness of confrontation, including on an inter-confessional basis. Against this background, the positions of Sunni Islamic radicals (the Al-Qaeda group Dzhebhat al-Nusra *, banned in Russia, etc.) strengthened in the camp of the armed opposition with their calls for jihadization of the insurgent movement. As a result, thousands of "fighters for the faith" from all over the Arab-Muslim world flocked to Syria.

As of the end of 2015, more than a thousand armed anti-government groups, including more than 70 thousand people, were operating in the country. Of these, tens of thousands are foreign mercenaries, and the majority were extremists from more than 80 countries, including Muslim states, the EU, the US, Russia and China (Uyghur Muslims).

External support allowed the terrorist organization "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" * (ISIS), later * (ISIS, Arab. DAISH, banned in Russia) to become more active. In the summer of 2014, the Islamic State organization* .

© AP Photo / Raqqa Media CenterMilitants of the terrorist group "Islamic State" (IS, banned in the Russian Federation) in the city of Raqqa, Syria

© AP Photo / Raqqa Media Center

A new round of conflict arose in August 2013, when a number of media outlets reported on the large-scale use of chemical weapons by Syrian troops in the vicinity of Damascus. More than 600 people became victims of the attack. The coalition of the national opposition in Syria claimed that the number of victims could reach 1.3 thousand people. After the incident, the parties to the conflict repeatedly declared their innocence, blaming opponents for what happened. UN inspectors went to Damascus to. The investigation conducted by the UN mission confirmed the very fact of the chemical attack, but the mission did not determine which side of the conflict.

The possible use of chemical weapons has unleashed a worldwide discussion about the need to launch a military operation in Syria. In turn, Russian President Vladimir Putin put forward an initiative to place the Syrian military chemical potential under international control. On September 28, 2013, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution on Syria in support of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) plan aimed at . At the end of June 2014, the removal of chemical weapons from Syria was completed. In early 2016, the OPCW.

Attacks on IS* positions in Syria are carried out by an international coalition led by the United States, while the coalition is operating.

On September 30, 2015, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad asked Moscow for military assistance. Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a proposal to the Federation Council to adopt a resolution on consent to the use of the contingent of the Russian Armed Forces abroad, the Federation Council unanimously supported the president's appeal. The military purpose of the operation was declared to be air support for the Syrian government forces in their counteraction against the Islamic State terrorist group. Aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) on the same day began to conduct an air operation of the IS* group in Syria.

As of September 2017, the aerospace forces carried out more than 30,000 sorties, inflicting more than 92,000 airstrikes, and as a result hit more than 96,000 terrorist targets. Among the objects of terrorists destroyed by the Aerospace Forces: command posts (total 8332), strongholds of terrorists (total 17194), concentrations of militants (total 53707), militant training camps (total 970), depots of weapons and ammunition (total 6769), oil fields (212 ) and oil refineries (184), fuel transfer stations and tanker convoys (132) as well.

December 18, 2015 UN Security Council in support of the political transition in Syria. As a basis for the political transition in Syria, the UN Security Council endorsed the Action Group's Geneva Communiqué on Syria of 30 June 2012 and the "Vienna Statements" International Syria Support Group, November 14, 2015). Negotiations between the Syrian government and representatives of the Syrian opposition under the auspices of the UN.

Eight meetings were held in Geneva, but they did not bring any progress.

The last Geneva consultations ended in mid-December 2017 with mutual accusations of the parties, and it was not possible to start direct negotiations between the delegations. UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura called the eighth round a "golden missed opportunity" and pointed out that both sides created a negative and irresponsible atmosphere in the talks. The main discussions in the talks are around a 12-point non-paper on the future of Syria, proposed by the UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura. In parallel, there are discussions (constitution, elections, governance and terrorism). On January 25-26, 2018, a special meeting on Syria was held at the UN office in Vienna.

In parallel, in Syria in Astana, initiated by Russia, Iran and Turkey. Eight rounds of negotiations took place, the last -. During this time, a memorandum was signed on the creation of de-escalation zones in Syria, a provision was agreed on a joint task force to monitor the cessation of hostilities in Syria, and a number of other agreements were reached, which . During the seventh round of negotiations, it was decided to hold the Congress of National Reconciliation of Syria in Sochi.

*Terrorist and extremist organizations banned in Russia.

The material was prepared on the basis of information from RIA Novosti and open sources