Why summer is cold opinion of scientists. Winter will warm. Cold temperature anomalies

Employees of the Laboratory of Hydrometeorology of the Arctic of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, together with foreign colleagues, studied the processes of area reduction sea ​​ice Arctic Ocean and predicted their climatic consequences. Weather anomalies, in particular the cold and rainy summer of 2017 in the European territory of Russia, are most likely the result of a reduction in the area of ​​the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean. The research was supported by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (RSF). The results of the work were published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

The processes of melting ice in the Arctic today have accelerated significantly. Over the past decade, sea ice extent (estimated at the end summer period) decreased by about 40%. disappearance arctic ice fraught with serious environmental impact, in particular the extinction rare species animals. On the other hand, the release of the waters of the Arctic Ocean from under the ice opens up new opportunities for the development of minerals on the Arctic shelves, expands the zone of industrial fishing, and improves conditions for navigation.

Employees of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, together with colleagues, studied the processes of ice melting in the Atlantic part of the Arctic Ocean and described the consequences of these processes for the entire Arctic region. As a result of the work, a complete picture of hydrometeorological changes in the Arctic was obtained. Warm ocean currents bring warm waters from Atlantic Ocean to the Arctic Basin and the Barents Sea, providing accelerated ice melting. Ice-free water areas effectively absorb solar energy and quickly warm up, releasing excess heat and moisture into the atmosphere. Air currents and major storms then redistribute heat and moisture across almost the entire Arctic, leading to changes energy balance between ocean and atmosphere. In particular, scientists have found that downstream long-wavelength radiation (NDI) increases significantly. This is infrared (thermal) radiation emitted primarily by water vapor and clouds and directed towards earth's surface. Rising NDI contributes to the warming and melting of Arctic sea ice.

The blue-violet contours show the isolines of sea ice concentration during the winter season from 1979 to 2017 (dark blue indicates the lowest concentration). The red arrows represent the direction of the spread of the Atlantic water. The thin black and red lines show the position of the 20 percent ice stock in March 1979-2004 and 2012, respectively.

Russian scientists drew attention to the significant impact of major storms and the atmospheric circulation on the state of the ice cover. For example, Storm Frank, which occurred in December 2015, brought anomalously high temperature(deviation from the mean climate temperature was 16°C), and the flow of NDI is significant (compared to the climatic norm). As a result, the decrease in ice thickness in some regions of the Arctic Ocean has reached 10 centimeters.

Scientists obtained data on the area of ​​sea ice from satellites, and the fields of distributions of temperature, pressure, humidity and radiation from the so-called reanalysis product (ERA-Interim). Reanalysis is a computer model that assimilates long-term observational data (radiosonde, aviation, etc.) for different characteristics atmosphere.

"The new knowledge obtained as a result of our work allows us to more accurately analyze the causes and consequences of the processes taking place in the Northern Arctic Ocean. If a sufficiently large area of ​​the Arctic turns out to be uncovered by ice, cold and humid air to the European territory of Russia. IN Lately this situation is observed more and more often and becomes the cause of weather anomalies, such as the unusually cold summer of 2017,” said Vladimir Vladimirovich Ivanov, head of the laboratory of hydrometeorology of the Arctic, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences.

Meteorologists need to develop new algorithms that include information about natural processes taking place in the Arctic. This will make weather forecasts more reliable and take into account current climate changes.

Falling in the Moscow region from the sky on the second day of the calendar summer, someone defined the white substance as hail, someone as snow. Rather, in different areas it was both. "Reedus" tried to find out what this phenomenon is and why this disgrace happens in the first month of summer.

There is no particular disgrace with the weather this year, you just need to keep in mind weather past years, the leading meteorologist of Gismeteo, Leonid Starkov, stands up for nature.

“In 2016, similar weather - with snow pellets - was observed on June 6-7. And the daytime temperature then did not rise above +9. Typically, such an intermediate state of precipitation between snow and hail is characteristic of periods of sharp cooling during the warm period. But this year there was no stable warm period as such - average temperature May was only +10.9 degrees, this is the coldest May in the last 16 years,” he told Reedus.

Before that, the same cold Mays were observed in 2001 and 2008, but then average monthly temperature slightly over 11 degrees.

Judging by the frames of the film “The Cold Summer of 53rd,” the weather in Moscow then was also not beachy

If we look at the observation diaries for even earlier periods, then in 1999 the average temperature in May was generally 8.7 degrees. Therefore, the current “green winter” of meteorologists is neither surprising nor frightening.

“In fact, if we are to be worried, then this should be done not because the summer will differ little from winter, but because of the possibility of repeating the summer of 2010, when Russia burned for all summer months. All the seven years that have passed since that drought in the media only scare that now every summer will be like this. But it turned out to be a cold summer - the media is again whipping up panic, ”Starkov frowns.

On June 9, in the capital, the temperature should rise to 25-30 degrees during the day, and it can be confidently predicted that the media will talk about “global warming”.

xl" target="_blank">an abnormally cold summer. As always in such cases, global warming is blamed for everything. The RIAMO correspondent talked to experts and found out what is really happening with the climate in Moscow and the Moscow region.

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The ghost of global warming

The term "global warming" itself appeared in 1975: it was mentioned by Wallace Broker in an article on climate change trends as a result of anthropogenic factors. These trends are constantly monitored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And the Kyoto Protocol, signed at the UN conference in 1997, is designed to minimize greenhouse gas emissions by participating countries. Therefore, on the one hand, climate change on Earth is under international control.

On the other hand, global climate processes raise questions among ordinary inhabitants of the planet, and in particular, the Moscow region. Since the world is experiencing global warming - then why is the beginning of summer in the capital region so cold?

However, experts say that the climate is not an area where it is worth drawing superficial conclusions, despite obvious changes.

Yury Varakin, head of the situational center of Roshydromet, emphasizes that in order to confirm or deny that certain changes are taking place in the climate, it is necessary to monitor the situation for years, and the climate “step” is thirty years. Based on observational data for thirty years, statistical indicators are displayed: averages for a day or for a certain date, average daily temperature or maximum temperature that has been observed for thirty years, etc.

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Moscow and Moscow region - in the comfort zone

Moscow and the Moscow region are prosperous regions compared to those places where fires, droughts or floods are happening right now.

“We do not have such natural disasters as in Central and South Asia. Every year, thousands of people die from floods, not because a tree fell on their heads, but because houses are blown away as a result of a tropical downpour. Now there is an abnormal heat wave in Japan: several children have died of heat stroke, hundreds of people with overheating are in hospitals,” says Yuri Varakin.

However, the cold with which this summer began can be explained by the same global processes as the violence of the elements in other parts of the planet.

According to research by the Hydrometeorological Center, the reason for the recurrence of very cold and hot periods, dry and rainy periods is that the temperature on the planet rises unevenly.

“In the equatorial territories, warming is less noticeable than at the poles, and as a result, the temperature difference between them is decreasing. This temperature difference between the equator and the pole is the basis for the emergence of circulation in the atmosphere,” explains Roman Vilfand, director of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center.

According to forecasters, the processes in the atmosphere are slowing down.

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Human factor

However, all climatic anomalies and natural Disasters that have recently been taking place on the territory of Russia, in addition to global ones, there are quite local reasons.

Pollution of rivers, silting of reservoirs, huge garbage dumps - all this contributes to the fact that the consequences of the rampant elements were more severe. Experts believe that sometimes the precipitation itself is not so terrible as its consequences due to purely economic problems and the human factor.

He adds that in the conditions of a metropolis, where heating mains and communications pass under the asphalt, trees cannot live more than 60-70 years, they are destroyed root system and the tree withers.

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Myth long-term forecasts

Forecasters say that forecasts should always be made with great care: the longer the forecast period, the less reliable it is. Seven to ten days is the maximum period, and on its last dates the probability of an error increases significantly.

Despite this, the Hydrometeorological Center has a special department of long-range weather forecasts that compiles data for the season, but its method of work is based on statistical modeling for the analogous year.

“Suppose we need to develop a forecast for two months: they take the results of observations at a given point six months ago and, according to certain criteria, look for what is called an “analogue year”. That is, they are looking for a year in which, like ours now, February was very cold, and March and April were above the climatic norm. Then they look at what, for example, August was that year. And on the basis of this, they predict what the current August will be like. But this does not take into account what was August or March-April on another continent or in the southern hemisphere. It is possible that these things affect the climate in our country. Therefore, such models are scientific, but they are not enough for us yet, ”says Alexander Sinenkov, weather forecaster on duty at the Phobos weather center.

Be that as it may, according to Andrei Skvortsov, in the near future, residents of the Moscow region can still hope for good weather.

“In the next week, we will have about the same thing as now, up to plus 18-22 degrees, then rain, then the sun. The cyclone is standing - it will turn its cold side, then it will turn warm. But towards the end of next week, this structure may collapse - and we will get warmer,” the expert notes.

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Scientists "blamed" China for the cold summer. And the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia has its own explanation.

June 15 was the coldest summer day in 67 years of meteorological observations. The air in Moscow warmed up to only 10 degrees, and in the morning it was 7-9 degrees.

Now scientists have found the culprit in the abnormally cold summer of 2017. They could be the Chinese satellite "Mo-Tzu", which participated in experiments on quantum movement. Measurements showed that in those days when the device worked in full mode, the weather deteriorated sharply, it rained, the winds intensified, NSN reports.

However, according to them intcbatch According to him, the concentration of particles in the atmosphere will soon normalize. Now, experts intend to study the impact of processes associated with quantum communication on the weather, since before the launch of an innovative satellite conducted by Chinese scientists, such factors were not studied.

In the next 10 years, the climate is likely to be undulating, with frequent changes in higher and higher low temperatures. The head of the Hydrometeorological Center Roman Vilfand told Rossiyskaya Gazeta about this.

According to him, normal average temperatures will be less, but the alternation of rainy and dry periods will increase. It is also possible that anomalous warm winters and frosts in summer. As for the upcoming summer prospects for residents Central Russia, then, according to the head of the Hydrometeorological Center, July still promises to please Muscovites and residents of the central regions warm weather, which will be several degrees higher than the norm. And even complete bathing season will be able to open. True, while the water temperature in Moscow and Moscow region reservoirs does not exceed 14 degrees.

The next week, as the head of the laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center Lyudmila Parshina, said, the capital region is expected to be moderately warm. Daytime temperatures will fluctuate within 22-24 degrees, night -10-12 degrees. Rains are possible.

As for other Russian regions, the temperature background is different everywhere - up to 40-degree heat, as in Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Kemerovo regions and in the Altai Territory, to night frosts, as in the Murmansk region.

On Tuesday, January 31, the Governor of the Moscow Region Andrey Vorobyov delivered his annual address to the residents of the region. RIAMO has collected 15 of Vorobyov's most important statements. Further direct speech.

We need our breakthrough. In what? The Moscow region should enter the top five (regions of the Russian Federation - ed.) in all key areas of human life. Safety and health, education and ecology, roads and quality of housing and communal services, efficient public administration and favorable investment climate.

In three years of work, we were able to close 20 solid waste landfills. A federal program has been adopted under which we will continue to close these dangerous landfills. We will open new, safe and build waste processing plants.

Every region and every person wants to live richly. That is why our priority is the economy and investment.

Today the Moscow region is in the top three by gross regional product. 3 trillion rubles. And our neighbor has 13. Despite the fact that only the Moscow Ring Road separates us. In terms of per capita income, we were 17th in the country, and now we are in 15th place.

We will continue to settle the barracks. As part of the execution of the presidential decree, 16,000 people have already received new apartments. Here are some very fresh shots from Shchelkovo and Kotelniki. People moved from stables, barracks.

Most Valuable Result industrial, agricultural, investment policy - this is work close to home. In Kashira and Noginsk, in Lyubertsy and Shatura. In total, there are 250 thousand new jobs in the region.

In four years we have released on the routes of 2.5 thousand new buses - this is exactly half of the Mostransavto fleet - and 96 electric trains. Such renewal of the park in the modern history of the Moscow region has not yet been carried out.

To our healthcare workers We raised salaries twice last year. This year, doctors and medical staff.

By the quality of education we maintain leading positions in the country. The number of "stobalniks" of the Unified State Examination in Russian, history, foreign languages. This is an objective indicator. Our graduates are among the best.

We negotiated with residents about the improvement of parks. At the start, we had 25 of them - and all in an extremely neglected state. Today there are already 82 of them - with lighting, paths, benches, a development plan, and most importantly - with strollers and children's laughter.

During these four years we have become the best in the country in terms of the smallest number of officials per 10,000 population. This figure is 17 people. That is, we have the most optimized management structure at the regional and municipal levels.

Last year we opened six overpasses (Stupinsky district - two, Khimki, Solnechnogorsk, Dolgoprudny, Chekhov district), 28 roads, including the long-awaited Podolsk South Bypass, Aviatsionny village bypass, entrances to Zhukovsky, Ramenki, Yegoryevsk and other settlements.

For three years - a decrease(mortality on the roads - ed.) by 30%. In January, we reduce mortality by 15%. Nevertheless, in absolute terms, we are still anti-leaders. I am sure that if we keep up the pace, we can turn the tide.

Today we have 104 multifunctional centers - in every settlement within walking distance, as required by the May presidential decrees. The number of applications has grown in four years from 400,000 to 12 million a year.

Crime rate in the area in 2016 fell by 20%, below the national crime rate. We are implementing a very important "Safe Region" system.

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