Gorban Leonid Ivanovich forecast for the year. The folk calendar predicts a very harsh winter. So, long-term weather forecast

Leonid Ivanovich Gorban is a more than unique person. He devoted his entire life to the fire service, retired with the rank of lieutenant colonel, but all his life he had an amazing hobby, which he inherited from his grandfather - meteorology. Leonid Ivanovich does not pretend to be a professional weather forecaster; he considers himself a people's weather forecaster.

By the way, in Ukraine Leonid Ivanovich is the only national weather forecaster. His “colleague” from Dnieper Valery Nekrasov died a month ago.

- Leonid Ivanovich, how did you become the people's weather forecaster?

I received all my knowledge from dear grandfather- Afanasy Fedorovich Barlet. We come from Poltava region. It was there that my great-grandfather, by the way, an English baron, moved at one time. He came to study the history of the Zaporozhye Sich and liked it so much in the Poltava region that he stayed there. Afanasy Fedorovich was interested not only in history, but also studied the works of Field Marshal Yakov Bruce. Bruce was a prominent scientist during the time of Peter the Great, studied a lot of astronomy, and kept diaries. In 1710, Bruce published a calendar, or Christian month book, where there was a method of astrological predictions not only of the weather. My great-grandfather once made this calendar his reference book. Then he passed on the knowledge to my grandfather - he was a simple shoemaker, but a literate person. Many in the village turned to him to look at the miracle calendar - whether there would be a harvest, what the winter would be like, what to expect from the weather.

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The priest of the local church persuaded my grandfather to pass on this knowledge to me.

But I began to be interested in this after his death - I was 20-something at that time. I came to the village, took my grandfather’s notes from the church and began to study. I remembered something, my grandfather’s notes helped me with some things, and I came up with some myself. My grandfather warned me that I should remain silent until the age of 50, otherwise they might imprison me, but after 50 I can speak. And he told the truth - apparently he knew something.

- What kind of Bryusov calendar is it? What is it based on?

As a person who studied it, I will say that this is truly a titanic work. Bruce studied the works of the Greeks and Chinese about how the Sun, Moon and other planets influence the Earth. He structured them and compiled numerical series of planets. So, thanks to the calendar, you can predict not only the weather, because the planets influence the most significant events- with the help of a calendar you can predict wars, changes, crises, coups and much more. But this is a thankless task - I prefer to calculate the weather.

Bruce's technique is not quite the correct name. The numerical values ​​of the planets were known to the Greeks and Chinese, and even to Pythagoras. Back in the 14th century, one of the German cardinals wrote a treatise in which he tried to present his theory on this matter. The key here is the fact that everything always moves in a circle. Then this technique was adopted by the encyclopedist Bruce. To briefly explain, the life of the earth is influenced by seven planets - each of them influences one specific year, then the cycle begins again.

- What is the accuracy of your forecasts?

Several times I was told that the accuracy of my forecasts ranged from 90% to 94%.

- You have worked in the fire service most of your life. Did your calculations somehow help in your work?

But what? IN Soviet times government employees liked to be sent to harvest crops. One day we were urgently taken to pick tomatoes - weather forecasters officially announced that frosts were expected. I immediately warned that there would be no frost and did not let my subordinates in. And so it turned out. Since then they began to listen to me. Once again, the management gave the order to go put out the grass - it was burning on large area. I then went up to the authorities and said - if it rains tonight, it will put it out. They didn’t believe me, but decided to wait until the morning. And so it happened. Before retiring, there was an incident - it was pouring with heavy rain for several days, I went up to the guys and said - so, well, get ready, frost will hit at night, which means rescuers must be ready. At that time we had leadership from Kyiv - my guys understood everything, but the Kiev authorities looked at me with bewilderment. As a result, it was so cold in the morning that they couldn’t even leave. Since then I have even been consulted about the weather.

How far ahead can you predict the weather?

A few years ago I published my book, in which I described the weather until 2030. I can make a weather chart for 100 years.

Forecasters from the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center claim that the weather can be predicted for the next week at most, and do not make such long-term forecasts.

I don't like official weather forecasters. In nature, everything is cyclical and natural, but these people don’t even know about it.

All their work is based on some dubious equipment and some kind of calculations that have an error of 50 to 50. In 1990, I spoke at the All-Union Conference, where I shared my experience in calculations, I was interrupted by the head of the USSR Hydrometeorological Service, saying. That nature is a huge chaos, and that I'm bluffing. As practice has shown, nature is not chaos, and I was right. Even then, a quarter of a century ago, I realized that it was pointless to tell official weather forecasters about my methodology, but ordinary people, villagers, and enterprise managers flocked to me.

Let's talk about the weather. You said that every 7 years one of the planets influences the Earth. Which planet controls us now, and what can we expect before the end of the year?

2016 for us is under the influence of Mars. When Mars rules, spring is cold and summer is hot. The peak of heat occurs in July. Autumn this year will be damp, and winter will begin in early November. Moreover, severe frosts and snowfalls should be expected. Next year, 2017, will pass under the sign of the Sun. Winter will drag on, spring will come late and will be cold. Summer will again be just as hot and dry, autumn will be little pleasant - although it will be warm, it will be wet. 2018 is the year of Venus. The year will be extremely wet - spring will come early, but will be wet, summer will be hot, but with rain, autumn will be warm, but frosts will begin in October.

- The traditional question from the villagers - what about the harvest?

Next year the harvest will be smaller than this year - all because of the land. There will be a good grain harvest in 2018, but due to rains, villagers may lose part of the harvest.

- What should Ukrainians expect from winter?

I would advise you to insulate yourself, stock up on firewood and coal, and buy good winter shoes and clothes. The current weather will last until mid-October. Then a sharp cold snap and rain will begin. Frosts above 10 degrees will begin in November and will continue until March. On New Year's Day, expect frost to be around 25 degrees below zero. I calculated that this winter would be the worst in 32 years. If anyone remembers the winter of 1985, then exactly the same weather awaits us.

Leonid Ivanovich, have you really, with your knowledge, never calculated any changes in the life of the country using Bruce’s calendar?

Weather forecast for 2018 © Depositphotos

What the weather will be like in the coming year, how hot the summer and cold winter are expected, will tell you tochka.net .

People's weather forecaster Leonid Gorban shared his comments about the weather for the entire 2018 on the Segodnya website.

According to him, if December was mostly snowless, and the New Year passed with above-zero temperatures, this is not a reason to be upset - winter will still delight us with snow and threaten with serious frosts, but summer is expected to be quite warm.

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Scientists meteorologists almost unanimously assert that it is almost impossible to make a more or less accurate ultra-long-term weather forecast for a year in advance. Indeed, in addition to traditional pressure drops, lines atmospheric fronts, precipitation, temperature, the weather is also influenced by numerous uncalculated factors, such as seismic conditions, volcanic eruptions, the behavior of the World Ocean, etc.

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But Leonid Gorban’s weather forecasts are based on the ancient method of the “Bryusov calendar”, in which calculations are carried out according to folk signs, as well as according to the numerical series of the planets. And the accuracy of such a weather forecast is almost 75%, and for some regions - up to 95%. The Sun, Moon and planets take turns in the formation of the annual weather: Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn. The past 2017 was the year of the Sun, the coming 2018 is the year of Venus.

The Year of Venus is more wet than dry. The spring is expected to be cool and damp: March will be cold, April and May will also not be hot and dry. Summer is humid and moderately warm. The years of Venus are fruitful for ear crops, but the danger is that during the harvesting period there are heavy rains of a prolonged nature, which leads to loss of harvest. Autumn is warm at first, then cold, and frosts are possible already at the end of October. Winter is moderate, at first dry, then cold, very snowy, which will lead to large river floods.

Disputes between practicing meteorologists, climate scientists and folk weather forecasters about whether it is possible to accurately predict the weather a year in advance have been going on for decades. The points of view are different. Thus, back in Soviet times, one of the leaders of the USSR Hydrometeorological Center declared with aplomb: “The weather is chaos. How can you predict chaos a year in advance?” Since then, the opinion of meteorologists has changed, but not dramatically: the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center can only speak about the most general weather trends for the coming year. They are based on statistical data that the Central Geophysical Observatory of Ukraine has been accumulating for 136 years. It follows from them that with each decade our winters become warmer and our summers last longer. Populist enthusiasts, who have been studying ancient or developing for many years, have a different opinion. own methods forecasts that, in their opinion, refute the theory of stable warming. Finally, fundamental science speaks of long-term circulations (circular movements) of the polar air masses from high latitudes to low latitudes, and vice versa. Due to these circulations, cold and warm periods alternate. Now we are heading towards colder years, Segodnya.ua reports.

CHIEF FORECASTER AND SCIENCE.“We can say for sure that both in winter and in summer period Average temperatures are expected to be above normal as the overall warming trend continues. But this winter there will be severe frosts and thaws, and in the summer, as usual, there will be both heat and coolness with showers, exact dates which are impossible to predict,” Nikolai Kulbida, head of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, shared with us his forecast for 2017. Professor Vazira Martazinova, head of the department of climate research and long-term weather forecasts at the Meteorological Research Institute of the National Academy of Sciences, speaks about temperature “swings” throughout the year. “The winter will be unsettled. There will only be 20-25 frosty days,” Martazinova noted. - At the end of January 2017 it will be up to -10, on February 10-11 it will be up to -14, and this last days winter. Then spring begins."

Populists. The most detailed forecasts of folk weather forecasters: they give weather calculations by day, predict rain and heat, and calculate the average daily temperature. Over the five years of publications of such forecasts - from the late Valery Nekrasov from Dnieper, Vladimir Lis from Volyn, who, alas, is no longer involved in weather calculations, and the current national weather forecaster Leonid Gorban - “Today” has become convinced that the reliability of their predictions is very high. Gorban estimates the probability of his forecasts for all of Ukraine at 75%, which is close to the truth. “It is hardly possible to give more precise calculations for the entire country, because the regions are different: flat, mountainous, coastal and continental. And the weather is a little different everywhere. But for certain areas, the accuracy of my calculations reaches 95%,” Gorban assures. Last year he correctly predicted a late spring, a cool summer, early autumn almost no Indian summer, frost and snow already in November and December colder than usual. Segodnya publishes a new forecast from Leonid Gorban for 2017 (see infographic). According to the 7-year cycle of the planets of the Bryusov calendar (“Segodnya” wrote about it in detail on January 15, 2016), which Gorban uses in his calculations, the year of the Sun is coming. “Winter in the year of the Sun is cold and snowy, spring is cold at first, frosts last until March 20-25, April is cold and dry with strong winds, there is drought in May,” Gorban explained his forecast. - Summer is dry and hot at first, heavy rains in July, and cool in August. Autumn is warm with heavy precipitation; from mid-November there are light frosts and snow.”

HARVEST: WITHOUT SPRING, BUT WITH CORN

Leonid Gorban claims that the years of the Sun (1996, 2003, 2010, 2017 and beyond) are usually lean years. “Only the Mercury years are worse than them (1998, 2005, 2012, 2019...). “There are several reasons for the low harvest in 2017,” explains Gorban. - First: this year’s winter extends into March and half of April, which means the sowing dates for spring and row crops (corn, sunflower) are postponed. In May, it is hot from the first days, and there is no rain for almost the entire May and the first half of June, which slows down the growth of plants. There will be good rains in July, but it is too late. Additionally, strong winds and storms will cause wheat lodging in many areas just as the harvest begins. August will not be hot with moderate rains, but the precipitation will only benefit sunflowers and corn, which will begin to grow actively. You cannot delay harvesting them, because the first half of October is expected to be damp, and it will no longer be possible to collect a good harvest. But in September the ground will be damp, and sowing of winter crops will proceed normally.”

“Today” checked to what extent Gorban’s words are supported by statistics. As it turns out, there is a pattern. Thus, according to the State Statistics Service, in 1995, Ukrainian farmers collected 33.9 million tons of grain, in 1996 (year of the Sun) - only 24.5 million tons, in the next 1997 (year of the Moon) the increase again reached 35 .5 million tons, in 1998 (a lean year of Mercury) - only 26.5 million tons! The same thing happened in the next 7-year period, which fell in the 2000s: 2003, ruled by the Sun, turned out to be twice as bad in terms of grain harvest (20.2 million tons) compared to the previous and subsequent years. In 2010, the picture was better - the harvest amounted to 39.2 million tons, but less than a year earlier and a year later (46 and 56 million tons).

Agricultural market experts agree that the weather seriously affects harvest volumes, but argue that in any case, Ukraine is not in danger of famine. “If the weather conditions in spring and summer turn out to be the same as the national weather forecaster predicts, they can really seriously reduce the grain harvest,” Yaroslav Levitsky, an analyst at the consulting company ProAgro, explained to us. - First of all, this applies to spring crops that are sown in the spring. But winter crops will tolerate frosts well in conditions of a cold but snowy winter. We have much more winter crops than spring crops: approximately 5 million hectares of wheat and about 1 million hectares of barley versus 0.1 million hectares and 2.5 million hectares, respectively. At the same time, the barley grown in our country is mainly feed, only a small part of it is of food and brewing quality.” According to Levitsky, the annual consumption of grain in Ukraine is about 25 million tons, of which up to 6 million tons are for food needs, so even with a low yield of 14-15 c/ha (this is half as much as last year), the harvest will be enough for with interest. But grain prices may rise. Thus, a ton of wheat in the lean year of 2012 on the domestic market cost in dollar equivalent $280-300/t, and in the last three harvest seasons its price fluctuates between $150-170/t.

WEATHER RECORDS OF UKRAINE

With the help of specialists from the climatology department of the Central Geophysical Observatory of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Ukraine, Segodnya found out in what places and in what year the climate records Ukraine, and compared them with the world ones.

The maximum heat was recorded on July 20, 2007 in Voznesensk, Nikolaev region - +41.3 °C. But this is nothing compared to the heat in Libya - here in the city of Al-Azizia it reached +57.8 °C in September 1922.

But the severest frost of –41.9 °C in Ukraine occurred on February 8, 1935 in Lugansk. The world record is 89.2 degrees below zero at the Vostok station in Antarctica in 1983.

The most snow - 3.5 m - fell on March 25, 2006 in the Carpathians, but they did not reach the snowdrifts of 4.8 m on Mount Shasta in California (February 1959).

The strongest wind in our country blew on December 24, 1947 on Ai-Petri - 180 km/h versus 407 km/h on the Barrow Islands in Australia in 1996.

FORECASTER-SOLNYSHKO

Leonid Gorban jokingly says that his pet cat helps him prepare weather forecasts: a handsome Persian with the unusual nickname Sunny. “When I work, Sunny sits on the table and watches carefully,” Gorban said. - One day I made the calculations, left them on the table and went out. When I returned, I was horrified to discover that Sunny, sorry, had described them. I started redoing it - and found a gross error in the numbers! If it weren't for the cat, the whole forecast would have been wrong. The cat also marked the sheets - and every time after that an error was discovered! Some kind of mysticism." But Nikolai Kulbida, who also has cats at his dacha, answered us that he does not consult with animals when preparing forecasts.