Accurate weather forecast from Leonid Gorban. Folk calendar prophesies a very harsh winter Ukrainian weather records

Leonid Ivanovich Gorban is a more than unique person. He devoted his whole life to the fire service, retired with the rank of lieutenant colonel, but all his life he had an amazing hobby, which was inherited from his grandfather - meteorology. Leonid Ivanovich does not pretend to be a professional weather forecaster, he considers himself a people's weather forecaster.

By the way, in Ukraine Leonid Ivanovich is the only people's weather forecaster. His "colleague" from the Dnieper, Valery Nekrasov, died a month ago.

- Leonid Ivanovich, how did you become a people's weather forecaster?

He received all his knowledge from his grandfather - Afanasy Fedorovich Barlet. We come from Poltava region. It was there that my great-grandfather moved in due time - by the way, an English baron. He came to study the history of the Zaporizhzhya Sich and he liked Poltava region so much that he stayed there. Afanasy Fedorovich was interested not only in history, but also studied the works of Field Marshal Yakov Bruce. Bruce was a prominent scientist during the time of Peter the Great, did a lot of astronomy, kept diaries. In 1710, Bruce published a calendar, or the Christian Menologion, where there was a methodology for astrological predictions not only of the weather. My great-grandfather once made this calendar his desk book. Then he passed on the knowledge to my grandfather - he was a simple shoemaker, but a literate person. Many in the village turned to him to look at the miracle calendar - whether there will be a harvest, what winter will be like, what to expect from the weather.

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The priest of the local church persuaded my grandfather to pass this knowledge on to me.

But I began to be interested in this after his death - I was 20-something at that time. I came to the village, took grandfather's notes from the church and began to study. I remembered something, my grandfather's notes helped in some ways, I reached something myself. My grandfather warned me to remain silent until the age of 50, otherwise they could be imprisoned, but after 50 I can speak. And he told the truth - apparently, he knew something.

- What kind of Bruce calendar? What is it based on?

As a person who studied it, I will say that this is truly a titanic work. Bruce studied the writings of the Greeks and Chinese on how the Sun, Moon and other planets affect the Earth. He structured them and compiled the numerical series of the planets. So, thanks to the calendar, you can predict not only the weather, because the planets affect the most significant events- using the calendar, you can predict wars, changes, crises, upheavals and much more. But this is a thankless task - I prefer to calculate the weather.

Bruce's technique is not quite the right name. The numerical values ​​of the planets were known to the Greeks and Chinese, and even to Pythagoras. Back in the 14th century, one of the German cardinals wrote a treatise in which he tried to present his theory on this matter. The key here is the fact that everything always moves in circles. Then this technique was adopted by the encyclopedist Bruce. Briefly explained, seven planets influence the life of the earth - each of them affects one particular year, then the cycle begins again.

- What is the accuracy of your forecasts?

Several times I was told that the accuracy of my forecasts is from 90% to 94%.

- You worked most of your life in the fire department. How did your calculations help in your work?

But how. IN Soviet times government employees liked to be thrown into the harvest. Once we were urgently taken to pick tomatoes - weather forecasters officially announced that frosts were expected. I immediately warned that there would be no frosts, and did not let my subordinates in. And so it turned out. Since then, people have been listening to me. Somehow, the leadership gave the order to go put out the grass - it was burning in a large area. I then approached the authorities and said - so it will rain tonight, it will put out. They did not believe me, but decided to wait until the morning. And so it happened. Before retiring, there was a case - it poured torrential rains for several days, I went up to the guys and said - so, they say, and so, get ready, frost will hit at night, which means rescuers should be ready. At that time, we had leadership from Kyiv - my guys understood everything, but the Kiev authorities looked at me with bewilderment. As a result, frost hit in the morning, so much so that they could not even leave. Since then, I have even been consulted about the weather.

How far ahead can you predict the weather?

A few years ago, I published my book in which I painted the weather until 2030. I can draw up a weather chart for 100 years.

Forecasters from Ukrgidromettsentr assure that the weather can be predicted for the next week maximum, and such long-term forecasts are not made.

I don't like official forecasters. In nature, everything is cyclical and natural, and these do not even know about it.

All their work is built on some kind of dubious equipment and some kind of calculations that have an error of 50 to 50. In 1990, I spoke at the All-Union Conference, where I shared my experience in computing, I was interrupted by the head of the Hydrometeorological Service of the USSR, stating. That nature is a huge mess, and that I'm bluffing. As practice has shown, nature is not chaos, and I was right. Already then, a quarter of a century ago, I realized that it was pointless to tell official weather forecasters about my methodology, but ordinary people, villagers, and business leaders reached out to me.

Let's talk about the weather. You said that every 7 years the Earth is affected by one of the planets. Which planet controls us now, and what to expect before the end of the year?

2016 is a year for us under the influence of Mars. When Mars rules, spring is cold, summer is hot. The peak of the heat is in July. Autumn this year will be wet, and winter will begin in early November. And we should expect severe frosts and snowfalls. The next year, 2017, will be under the sign of the Sun. Winter will drag on, spring will come late and be cold. Summer will again be just as hot and dry, autumn will not please much - it will be warm, but wet, though. 2018 is the year of Venus. The year will be extremely wet - spring will come early, but it will be wet, summer will be hot, but with rains, autumn will be warm, but frosts will already begin in October.

- The traditional question of the villagers - how is the harvest?

Next year's harvest will be smaller than this year's - all because of the sushi. In 2018, there will be a good grain harvest, but due to rains, the villagers may lose part of the harvest.

- What can Ukrainians expect from winter?

I would advise you to warm up, stock up on firewood and coal, buy good winter shoes and clothes. The current weather will "stretch" until mid-October. Then a sharp cold snap and rains will begin. Frosts over 10 degrees will begin in November and will continue until March. On New Year expect frost to be within 25 degrees below zero. I calculated that this winter will be the most severe for the last 32 years. If someone remembers the winter of 1985, then exactly the same weather awaits us.

Leonid Ivanovich, really, having knowledge, never calculated any changes in the life of the country according to Bruce's calendar?

In the coming year, we are promised a frosty end of winter and a "tropical" summer - hot and with rain. This is the long-term weather forecast from the famous people's weather forecaster Leonid Gorban, writes "Today".

In his forecasts, Gorban is guided by the ancient method of the so-called "Bryusov calendar", in which weather calculations are carried out according to the numerical series of the planets and folk signs. (“Today” wrote about this in detail on January 15, 2016 - Auth.). The annual weather is ruled in turn by the Sun, the Moon and five planets: Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn. The past year was the year of the Sun, the coming year was the year of Venus, the next one will pass under the sign of Mercury.

As Gorban admits, the accuracy of the average forecast for the whole of Ukraine is approximately 75%, but for individual regions the probability of its calculations reaches 95%. In the past year, the people's weather forecaster, in particular, correctly predicted the February cold, a late but hot summer, and an early rainy autumn.

“The year of Venus is more wet than dry,” says Gorban. - Spring is expected to be cool and damp: cold March, and April and March will not be hot and dry either. Summer is humid and moderately warm. The years of Venus are fruitful for spike crops, but the danger is that during their harvesting there are heavy rains that are protracted, which leads to crop loss. Autumn is warm at first, then cold, frosts are possible already at the end of October. Winter is moderate, dry at first, then cold, very snowy, which will lead to a large flood of rivers.

Ukrgidromettsentr and climatologists, unlike Narodnik, argue that it is difficult to make even an approximate weather forecast, since it is influenced by many uncalculated factors, for example, solar activity, volcanic eruptions, and the behavior of the World Ocean. But they all admit that over the past 5-6 years, the weather, both in Ukraine and in the world, has become more unstable.

“2018 is expected to be an average year, possibly rainier than usual. As in the previous 2-3 years, due to global warming, frequent temperature changes are possible, especially in summer - hot weather will briefly change to cool, then heat again, thunderstorms again., - Anatoly Prokopenko, deputy head of the Ukrhydrometeorological center, analyzes.

Leading researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Svetlana Boichenko explained to us that many factors are to blame for the increased "weather swings" that have become common over the past few years.

“There are several hypotheses why the weather is behaving strangely now. These are the processes of a long period on the Sun (not known 11-year, but 60-year cycles), and the intensification of volcanic activity, and the World Ocean, which either binds greenhouse gases, or releases them back into the atmosphere, this also reduces or increases temperature, Boychenko told us. - We have been conducting long-term studies on how the annual amplitude of the temperature variation has changed in Ukraine (between the lowest and the sum high temperature. - Auth.).

It turned out that winters in Ukraine have become much warmer, but for some reason summers are not much hotter, if not cooler, than 20-25 years ago. But over the past 10 years, a summer climate anomaly has also begun to appear, summer is becoming hotter. It seems that due to global warming, which is superimposed by factors such as intensified volcanic eruptions, throwing clouds of ash into the atmosphere, the weather is unbalanced. But we expect the anomalies to subside after 2020. This process has already begun, and every year the temperature amplitudes are getting smaller, and by 2030 there will be no such sharp drops as we are now seeing.”

This year, in addition to sharp summer weather fluctuations, Boychenko promises strong but short-lived frosts in January and February.